2022 Arlington Mid-Year Condo Review

Question: How did the Arlington condo market perform in the first half of 2022?

Answer: It has been quite a ride for the Arlington condo market over the past four years!
After a long stretch of relatively little appreciation from ~2013-2018, the condo market surged on the November 2018 news of Amazon HQ2 and then flatlined when COVID lockdowns began in the spring of 2020. Beginning in the summer of 2020, condo inventory flooded the market in record volume, causing the market to soften and prices to drop.

Conditions were improving by the summer of 2021 as demand picked up. By early 2022, competition return to the market with more multiple offers and escalations. The competition didn’t last long, as the entire housing market began to slow due to high interest rates and worsening economic conditions. After much volatility in the condo market since late 2018, I think we are finally seeing signs of the market finding its natural balance — moderately favorable for sellers, while providing buyers with a range of options and the occasional opportunity for a discount.

Let’s look at the stats behind the first half of the 2022 Arlington condo market…

Pace of New Inventory Evens Out

From 2013-2018, the Arlington condo market averaged ~500 and ~700 new listing in the first and second quarter, respectively. Those numbers dropped off a cliff in 2019 and 2020 because people chose to hold properties because of Amazon’s announcement (Q1 2019-Q1 2020) and then held in Q2 2020 because nobody knew what to do when COVID hit. Then the pace of inventory surged at a record-shattering pace from the summer of 2020 through the end of 2021.

Inventory levels finally came down to earth, closer to their 2013-2018 averages, with 576 and 651 new condo listings in the first and second quarters of 2022, respectively.

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Supply/Demand Levels Back to Normal-ish

With the easing of new inventory volume and demand coming back to level, Months of Supply (a measure that combines supply levels with the pace of demand) has returned to levels more in-line with pre-Amazon years and what I would consider to be the Arlington condo market’s natural balance.

Housing economists consider six months of supply to be a truly balanced market for buyers and sellers, but we rarely see a sub-market around here that gets close to six months. 1.5-2 months of supply is a favorable market for sellers, but it usually takes less than one month of supply for multiple offers and escalations to become a common occurrence. 

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Demand Metrics Tell Similar Story

The return to balance is showing up on the supply and demand sides of the equation, although demand seems to be marginally stronger that it was pre-Amazon announcement, which I’d attribute to how expensive townhouse/single-family properties have gotten lately, driving more demand towards less expensive condos.

What we can see from the chart below is that the speed of the market, measured by the percentage of properties going under contract within the first ten days, has improved over last year but has fallen well below 2019/2020 levels. The same goes for the percentage of properties selling for at or above the asking price.

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Good Half-Year for Two-Bedroom Condos

All pricing data points to the first half of 2022 being a great year for two-bedroom condos and an okay year for one-bedroom units. Here are some key pricing data points:

  • The median price of a two-bedroom condo increased 11.7% to $550,000 in the first half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2021
  • The median price of a one-bedroom increased 3% to $380,000
  • The average price of a two-bedroom increased 15.7% to $620,616 compared to 3% to $381,220 for a one-bedroom condo
  • On a $/SqFt basis, two-bedroom condos increased 7.4% to $517/SqFt compared to 2.8% to $497/SqFt for one-bedrooms

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If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

Should Your Condo Building Have a Rental Cap?

Question: Do you think it is a good idea for our condo board to consider setting a cap on the number of units that can be rented at a given time?

Answer: One of the most common debates within condo buildings is whether an Association should limit the number of condo units that can be rented concurrently. There are some benefits of limiting the number of owners who can rent out their unit(s), but I think it’s the wrong decision for most buildings because it can hurt property values and is unnecessary, in most cases.

For the sake of clarity, when I refer to rental/investor units in a building, I am referring to individual unit owners renting their unit(s) out to tenants instead of occupying it themselves (they are considered investors).

Lending Misinformation

There is a lot of misinformation out there about how the number of rental units in a building effect the warrantability of a building (ability of future buyers to secure a mortgage). Here are the limits you need to be aware of:

  • Fannie/Freddie Loans: Conventional loans backed by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac do not have any rental limits for primary and secondary home loans. They limited the number of rentals in a building to 50% for investor loans only.
  • VA (Veterans) Loans: No rental limits. The VA does not like seeing rental caps and may not approve a building for VA loans if they do have rental limits in place.
  • FHA Loans: FHA loans are restricted in buildings with more than 50% of units rented. FHA loans represent a small percentage of the loans written in this area.
  • Jumbo/Private Loans: High balance loans (over $970,800 loan amount), not insured by Fannie/Freddie, have a wide range of guidelines. Some have rental restrictions and others don’t, but in general jumbo/private loans tend to have more conservative lending guidelines and a higher chance of restricting a loan due to the number of units being rented. However, many banks will make exceptions, especially with higher (30%+) down payments and there are many alternative lending options in the jumbo/private arena a buyer can choose from.

Pro: Better Quality of Living

Owner-occupants generally invest more in their home, take better care of common areas, and take more pride in developing a strong social community. In small associations or those intent on maintaining a certain standard of living, quality of living may prevail over property value.

Cons: Buyer Turn-Off, Forced Sales

Many buyers want to keep their options open to renting a unit out after they are done using it as their primary residence and are turned off by the idea of a rental cap and plenty will not buy in a building if there is a cap, even if it’s unlikely to be reached. By turning otherwise motivated and qualified buyers away, you’re bound to hurt the market value of units in your building.

If a rental cap is reached and enforced, it can hurt market values even more because homeowners are forced to sell if they move out and a forced sale may result in a homeowner agreeing to take a worse deal when they would have otherwise chosen to rent the unit until they can sell into a strong market.

Track Rental Activity in Your Building

Even if you do not have a rental cap, it’s still important to track which units are being rented out. At a minimum, your Board/Management should receive a copy of each lease and keep a basic spreadsheet to be able to report on which units are being rented. In my experience, I have found that most buildings in Arlington settle into a rental percentage of 20-35%. For some buildings, like those in the heart of Clarendon, I see higher rental percentages, sometimes exceeding 50%.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH | @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.