Question: How did Arlington’s single-family detached market perform in 2024?
Answer: Starting this week, you can find some of my upcoming pre-market listings at the end of my article. For more information about these listings or more pre-market listings, feel free to reach out to me at [email protected].
With even less available inventory in 2024 than in 2023, low supply levels drove the average price of a single-family detached (SFD) home in Arlington up by 6.8% to an average price of more than $1,450,000 while the median price increased by 5% to just over $1,280,000. Despite the strong gains, this is the first time since 2019 that condo prices outpaced SFD prices. Last week we did a deep dive into the 2024 condo market, so this week we’ll dive into Arlington’s 2024 SFD market…
The data below looks at Arlington’s SFD market last year and the trends over the past five years. Most real estate data sets look at numbers based on the year a home sold/settled, but I prefer to look at data based on when a home went under contract because it gives a more accurate reflection of what was happening in the marketplace at the time the deal was agreed to. In past analysis, I have used “net” prices (sold price less seller closing cost credits), but due to MLS data changes, this data does not net out closing cost credits.
Supply Down, Prices Up
The available supply of SFD homes in Arlington continues sinking to new lows since 2022, putting immense upwards pressure on prices, despite lower demand. The result is an increase of 25.6% and 28% in the average and median price, respectively, of SFD homes in Arlington over the past five years.
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The average price of a SFD home increased by 6.8% to over $1.45M. Removing new construction from the data, the average SFD resale price increased by 6.8% to nearly $1.33M.
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The median price of a SFD home increased by 5% to over $1.28M
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The average buyer paid 0.4% over the seller’s original asking price across all SFD homes, but for homes purchased within the first ten days on market (59% of all sales), the average buyer paid 4.2% over the seller’s original asking price
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New builds sold for an average of $2.365M, 8.3% more than last year, but just a bit higher than in 2022
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Just 6% of SFD homes sold for less than $800,000 and many of them will be torn down and replaced with a new home
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17% of homes sold for over $2M, while just 14% sold for $1.6M-$2M
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In 2020, almost half of the homes sold were $800k-$1.2M, in 2024 just over 1/3 fell within that range
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Homes with 3-5 bedrooms make up more than 84% of the homes sold
Big Year for 22213 Zip Code
A small number of sales in 22213 packed a big punch in 2024, sending the average price of a home in this small zip code over $2.1M on account of the average lot size being over ¼ acre and average home being over 4,600 sqft, both nearly double the average size of the rest of the lots/homes sold last year in Arlington.
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The average home in 22205 increased by 13% and in 22207 by 11%, while the average price in 22201 fell by 4% (this does not mean that individual home values dropped in 22201)
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The best value for your money continues to be in South Arlington where the average $/sqft remains below $500
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Unsurprisingly, the zip code with the highest cost per square foot and acre is 22201, with many homes walking distance to the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor
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Sellers in 22202 were forced to reckon with the reality that Amazon HQ2 and all the local development does not command the premiums they hoped for, at least not yet, with the average seller taking a 3.1% discount from their original asking price, one of only two zip codes with an average sold price below the original asking price
Cash Purchases Remain High
After interest rates jumped in 2022, buyers responded with a sharp increase in the number of homes being purchased with cash instead of a mortgage. Referencing last week’s condo data, we see some interesting patterns between the two housing markets. In 2020, just 14% of condo sales and 14% of SFD sales were purchased using cash, but by 2023, both jumped to 25%. However, while the percentage of cash buyers continued to increase in the condo market (30%), it dipped slightly for SFD, to 23%, still well above the historical average.
Looking Ahead – More of the Same
No big bold predictions from me for 2025; I expect market conditions to remain consistent with 2024. Available inventory continues to edge lower, putting constant upwards pressure on prices, with no signs of reversal. High interest rates and prices will keep demand modest, even though it may seem to be much stronger due to high competition for the small number of homes for sale. If interest rates somehow manage to fall below 6%, watch out, prices will jump.
Below is a chart of Arlington’s SFD monthly inventory levels over the past ten years, to provide a visualization of the continuous downward trend, and just how much we need to make up to return to pre-pandemic/pre-Amazon HQ2 announcement levels. Below that is the same chart for Northern Virginia, where you can start to see a very slight reversal in monthly inventory levels. A continuation of this trend in 2025 should provide some pricing relief in Arlington, even if Arlington inventory levels remain low.
Of course, we all have our eyes and ears on announcements by the Trump Administration/DOGE reducing or eliminating regional jobs. Major employment changes, or simply the widespread fear of changes, could put enough downward pressure on demand that inventory levels begin increasing again.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
Upcoming (pre-market) ERG Listings, Details and Additional Listings Available by Request
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Rosslyn/Courthouse – 2BR/2BA/1,000sqft – Condo (2022) – 2000 Clarendon Blvd (ask for unit #) Arlington VA 22201
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Arlington Ridge/Aurora Hills – 3BR/2.5BA/2,450sqft – Detached Single Family (1961) – (ask for street #) S Grove St Arlington VA 22202
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Williamsburg – 6BR/6.5BA/6,000sqft – Detached Single Family (2025) – 6580 Williamsburg Blvd Arlington VA 22213
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Rosslyn – 1BR+den/1BA/900sqft – Condo (2007) – 1800 Wilson Blvd (ask for unit #) Arlington VA 22201
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Courthouse – 2BR/2BA/1,100sqft – Condo (1992) – 1276 N Wayne St (ask for unit #) Arlington VA 22201
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Courthouse – 3BR/2BA/1,400sqft – Condo (1992) – 1276 N Wayne St (ask for unit #) Arlington VA 22201
