The 2024 Market is Off to a ??? Start

The 2024 Market is Off to a ??? Start

  • 03/5/24
Question: How is the Northern VA real estate market doing so far in 2024?
Answer: It is common for there to be a sharp shift in market demand when the calendar turns to a new year and it usually happens pretty quickly. Last year, we experienced the most significant market “whiplash” we’ve had in at least a decade between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.

So far this year, the change isn’t quite as extreme as last year’s (things had slowed down more in Q4 2022 than they did at the end of 2023), but the Q1 market conditions in 2024 are proving to be more aggressive than in 2023 with higher escalations, more homes selling within one week, and more homes selling at or above the asking price than this time last year.

The 2024 Market is Off to an Explosive Start

With interest rates falling at the end of the 2023 and in early 2024, there was a lot of momentum in the local real estate market, and I quickly saw prices moving up 5%-10% on many properties, compared to 2023 pricing. Interest rates have crept back up over the past 4-6 weeks, but momentum has not been lost and I’m still seeing huge demand against tepid listing volume. Even the normally relaxed condo market is seeing competition and price appreciation.
The data in the table below is from the Arlington County and Fairfax County housing market for properties listed for sale in Q4 2023 and in Q1 2024, priced between $300k and $2M, not including new construction:

  • The average home that has been listed and sold in Q1 sold for 3.1% over the original asking price, even the average condo is selling for 1.4% over the asking price
  • 77.5% of all homes and 80.3% of detached or townhouse/duplex properties listed and closed in Q1 have gone under contract within seven days
  • 82.2% of all homes listed and sold in Q1 have sold for at or above the asking price and 66% have sold for above the asking price

We Really Need More Supply…

I’ve said this more times than I can count, but last year was a really bad year for supply, with a historically low volume of homes listed for sale. I have hope that this year with be better, but in Northern VA we saw a 13.5% year-over-year drop in January listing volume…not a good start. The low listing volume has a lot to do with the surge in pricing and competition so far in Q1, despite interest rates remaining high.
Northern Virginia has experienced 31 straight months of year-over-year declines in listing volume! February data is out next month.
If you’d like to discuss design trends, buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].


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