Question: After last year’s supply crunch, are we seeing a return to a more normal volume of inventory coming to market?
Answer: A severe lack of supply has been a well-documented problem in the housing market since 2022 with buyers suffering through a historically under-supplied market in 2023. Eyes have been focused on new listing inventory in 2024, looking for a trend reversal that brings some balance to the market and provides buyers with some relief.
False Hope in February, Back to Reality in March
January was the first sign of trouble with another month of year-over-year declines in new listing volume – a 31st straight month of negative year-over-year volume for Northern VA and 32nd straight month of declines for Arlington. February finally ended the streak and gave us (and most of the region) the first month-over-month INCREASE in new listing volume is years…finally!
But the optimism for a full reversal of supply trends came crashing down in March with another significant double digit decrease in new listing inventory locally and regionally, undoing (plus some) the modest year-over-year increase in February.
The charts below show data for Arlington and Northern VA. Similar patterns can be found in the DC Metro, Mid-Atlantic, and other local markets.
Arlington New Listing Volume Year-over-Year Change, Monthly/Quarterly
Northern VA New Listing Volume Year-over-Year Change, Monthly/Quarterly
Lower Active Listings = Strong Price Growth
The result of continued year-over-year declines in new listing volume has unsurprisingly led to a drop in total active listings because demand has remained strong. Supply levels are roughly where they were in early 2022, which marked the peak of the COVID-related housing frenzy before rates jumped. The abnormally low supply levels and strong demand have led to significant increases in home values so far this year, including in the usually-stable condo market.
Most data (and my experience in the market this year) suggests that homes values are 8-10%+ higher in 2024 than they were in 2023. Condo growth does not seem that high, maybe 4-6%, but that is significant for the condo market which is generally pretty flat.
Arlington and Northern VA Active Listing Supply Year-over-Year Change, Monthly
Arlington and Northern VA Average and Median Price Year-over-Year Change, Quarterly
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
