Answer:
Rent vs Buy: Nowhere to Hide
The unfortunate truth these days is that if you need housing, there’s nowhere to find safety. Prices on single-family homes and condos are up significantly, higher interest rates have pushed monthly payments to uncomfortable levels, and, as you’ll see below, the rental market is competitive and expensive.
Over the past five years, the average rent price in Arlington is up 21.6% across all property types and 27.1% for single-family home rentals. So far in 2024, about half of homes listed for rent are rented within the first ten days on the market and tenants have little room for negotiation, with the average property renting for just .2% less than the original asking price. Properties that are rented within the first ten days on the market (about half) are going for an average of 1.4% above the asking price.
About the Data
The data below is rental data from the MLS in Arlington over the last five years. Note that very few commercial apartment buildings list in the MLS so this data is limited to non-commercially owned rentals (for apartments, that is mostly individually owned condos).
Further, it’s difficult to say what percentage of non-commercially owned properties go through the MLS for rent but I would guess that it’s about half of rented apartments (condos), but likely a majority if detached and townhouse properties. Despite the limited data set, we still have more than enough information available through the MLS to generate outputs that represent the true rental market.
Highlights and Data Table
Here are some highlights from the data table (keep in mind that 2020-2023 includes 12 months of data, but 2024 is just 7.5 months of data):
- The average rent for an apartment (condo) is up 3.1% this year compared to last and the average rent for a single-family home and a townhouse/duplex is up 8.7% and 6.2%, respectively
- Average rental prices in Arlington are up 21.6% over the past five years
- The average rent price of an apartment (condo) has increased 17% in the past five years, a bit higher than the 14.3% increase to the average cost of buying a condo during that same period
- The average rent price of a single-family home has increased 27.1% in the past five years, a bit higher than the 24.9% increase to the average cost of buying a single-family home during that same period
- The 2024 rental market, across all property types, has been more competitive than it’s been during any other year going back to 2020, with properties renting at prices closer (or above) to the original asking price and properties accepting a tenant faster than any previous years. Note that these numbers might drop to be more in line with previous years once the slower months of 2024 (fall/holidays) are included.
- Roughly 50% of properties accept a tenant within ten days of being listed for rent
For further questions about the Northern VA rental market, Eli Residential Group’s rental specialist, Carolanne Korolowicz is available at [email protected].
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
