Question: What is the ratio of bathrooms to bedrooms in Arlington?
Answer: Somebody recently asked me what the bathroom-to-bedroom ratio is in Arlington and I ended up exploring Arlington market data through the lens of bedrooms. I might be the only person who finds this interesting but if you find yourself daydreaming about things like the number of bedrooms sold in Arlington and the cost per bedroom, than this is the article you’ve been waiting for!
What is a Bedroom?
Unlike many other jurisdictions, Arlington doesn’t have its own definition of a bedroom and defers to the Virginia Residential Building Code. I wrote about back in 2016, linked here. The Virginia requirements are pretty simple: minimum 70 SqFt, 7’+ ceiling heights, proper egress window, heated, and ventilation.
Arlington’s Housing Market by Bedrooms
Over the past five years, an average of 7,673 bedrooms have sold each year. 56% of bedrooms sold are in single-family homes, 25% in condos, and 19% in townhouse/duplex properties.
There’s an average of 600 new bedrooms being delivered each year via new construction
The average cost per bedroom has decreased in 2023 causing an overall decrease in the cost per bedroom in Arlington, despite small increases in the cost per bedroom for single-family and townhouse/duplex homes
There are an average of 2.7 bedrooms in each home sold in Arlington. I expected to find that the number of bedrooms per transaction increased in the spring, suggesting that more larger homes are listed during the spring market, but the average size of homes by bedroom count is consistent each month of the year always between 2.5 and 2.8 bedrooms per home sold.
There is an average of .8 full bathrooms for every bedroom sold. The ratio for single-family detached homes is .73 full bathrooms per bedroom
The second table below shows data from 2022-2023 sales
The data suggests that 4BR homes are the most in demand, followed closely by 3BR and 5BR, and for good reason…4BR homes have the best cost per bedroom of any size home
If you are buying a home with 2-6 bedrooms, you’re most likely going to pay at or above the asking price
The most expensive zip code per bedroom is 22209 at $494,000/BR and the least expensive is 22204 at $244,000/BR. The average cost per bedroom in a single-family home in 22207 is $349,000.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: Do I have to use my Property Manager if I sell my house?
Answer: This is more of a PSA post than anything else. If you’re a landlord or tenant, it’s crucial to pay attention to the fine print in agreements, especially regarding a future property sale. It’s common for Property Managers or Agents to include language that gives them the right to list your property if you choose to sell it or gives them a right to a commission in the event it sells during the rental period, to the tenant or somebody else.
Property Managers With Exclusive Right to Sell
Watch out for language granting property managers or agents exclusive rights to list your property if you decide to sell. This exclusivity restricts your options and flexibility, limiting your ability to explore alternative selling methods or use the agent of your choosing.
Required Commission Payments
Be aware of language stipulating a commission to property managers or agents if you sell your property to the tenant or another buyer during the rental period. Landlords might be obligated to pay a commission, even if they find an alternative buyer or wish to handle the sale independently. This financial burden can significantly impact both parties.
What If an Exclusivity or Commission Clause Exists?
Like most things in a contract, these clauses are negotiable. If you see something that you believe binds you to certain actions or payments in the event of a sale, ask about it and work to ensure you have the most flexibility if a sale does take place. You may not plan to sell when you sign the paperwork, but life happens and priorities change.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @Properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: Do you have any advice on questions I should ask a Realtor I’m interviewing to sell my home?
Answer: Before you ask, yes, I used ChatGPT for this column, BUT I used it to come up with 50 questions AI thinks you should ask a Realtor so that I can offer you human brain questions that will hopefully be more useful.
Or…is that what AI would say if I told it to pretend like it was a human trying to convince readers an article wasn’t written by AI 😉
Without further ado, here are five questions (from my own non-AI brain) that will help you make the right decision about who is handling the sale of your home:
How Do You Determine Price?
It’s impossible not to ask the agent you’re interviewing how much they think your house will sell for, and that’s totally fine, but don’t get wrapped up in an on-the-spot valuation of your home during the first appointment. Instead, it’s more important to understand the process your agent uses to determine pricing and decide if it’s an approach you’re bought into.
Who Will I Work With?
Agents and agent teams come in all shapes and sizes (link to past article on the topic), some are solo agents and some have a series of coordinators that handle each stage of your sale. In some cases, you may have little interaction with the agent you interview. It’s important to understand who will be involved in each step of the sale from determining/coordinating listing prep, to preparing the marketing, to negotiating contracts, and overseeing the contract-to-close.
Who Will Host the Open House(s)?
Open Houses are a great opportunity to interact with interested buyers, highlight strengths of the property, and collect valuable feedback. Open Houses are also a great source of new business for agents. Make sure that the interests of your Open House host(s) are aligned with your interest in selling your home.
How Often Do Deals Fall Through and What Happens If Things Go South?
Real estate deals go sideways in expected and unexpected ways so risk prevention (early identification and diffusion of problems) and management (handling of problems that arise) are critical attributes of a great agent. When things go south, a great agent has the resources to manage the most difficult deal-killers by tapping into brokerage leadership, legal resources, contractors, and having the experience, creativity, and leadership to put it all together.
Should I Consider Selling Off/Pre-Market?
It’s a great question and the answer is not the same for every home/homeowner. The right answer requires a deeper understanding of your goals, the market, and some good ol’ fashion critical thinking. There’s also a lot of different information out there about off/pre-market sales (some good, some misleading) so I think it’s a good topic to cover with your potential Realtor.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @Properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: How is the real estate market through the first quarter?
Answer: “How’s the market?” Well, technically, that answer depends on what market you’re talking about – location, property type, price point, etc but for this column, I’ll provide an overview of what we’re generally seeing in the Arlington/Northern VA/DC area market these days.
The market is competitive
Demand is moderately high
New listing volume is historically low
Rates (Hopefully) Heading Down
Ignore National Data
The market is Competitive
Multiple offers, escalations, and reduced or no contingencies are common.
The data visualization below is from the listings that went under contract each of the last two weeks at our brokerage, RLAH @properties, of ~400 agents in the greater DC Metro area.
Demand is Moderately High
Demand is lower now than it was from late 2020 through early 2022, due to high interest rates.
The chart below shows the quarterly absorption ratio for Northern VA over the past decade. A higher ratio = higher demand. We’ve fallen slightly from the post-Amazon HQ2 year (this was primarily driven by the condo market) and Covid buying years, but demand is still well above the “norm” established from 2013-2018.
New Listing Volume is Historically Low
The lack of new listings is driving competition, not high demand.
The chart below highlights the dramatic drop in new listing volume for the DC Metro area for Q4 and Q1, with about 10,000 fewer homes listed for sale during the most recent Q4/Q1 compared to previous years, or a ~25-30% drop for most DC area localities.
Rates (Hopefully) Heading Down
Inflation data suggests we’re heading firmly in the right direction and that puts downward pressure on interest rates. However, turmoil in the banking sector (SVB Collapse, commercial building loans) has caused demand for mortgage-backed securities to drop thus putting upward pressure on interest rate pricing.
Here’s a collection of some of the most recent interest rate forecasts through 2023:
Ignore National Data
Different markets, especially west coast (struggling) vs east coast (appreciating), are seeing very different data and make national data pretty useless to the individual homeowner/buyer.
The charts below show the wide range of national real estate price forecasts and a chart showing performance for major regional real estate markets around the country. Notice the variation between regional markets and you can understand why combining all of that data into one national pricing datapoint isn’t helpful.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: How many different real estate agents are there doing business in Arlington?
Answer: There were 2,795 real estate transactions in Arlington last year, totaling $2.264B in sales volume. This is down from over 3,500 transactions in 2021 that totaled $2.786B in sales volume, but very similar to the 2019 and 2020 numbers.
There were 2,491 licensed real estate agents involved in at least one sale in Arlington in 2022. Each transaction usually includes two real estate agents – one representing the buyer and another representing the seller.
I looked over the 2022 Arlington transaction data and pulled out some interesting highlights below. Of note, there are many real estate teams that enter all sales under one agent’s name, so in these cases, individual numbers represent the production of many agents rolled into one agent’s name, but I don’t have transparency into that data. Here’s a link to an article I wrote in 2019 explaining how different agents/teams are structured.
63% of agents who did business last year in Arlington had just one sale in Arlington (many of those had more sales outside of Arlington) and accounted for 24.4% of the total sales volume
2.6% (65) of agents handled 10+ transactions in Arlington
0.36% (9) of agents handled 20+ transactions in Arlington
1,666 different agents represented buyers, 66 (4%) represented 5+ buyers
1,379 different agents represented sellers, 115 (8.3%) represented 5+ sellers
The top 20% producing agents in Arlington accounted for 61% of sales volume
Keri Shull and her team once again led Arlington in total transaction and sales volume, representing 2.7% of buyers and sellers in Arlington and just over $94M in total sales volume, but for the first time I can recall, we have new leaders in the listing category, with Betsy Twigg leading listing sales volume at $46.5M and Kay Houghton leading listing transactions at 58
The highest average sale price with at least four transactions in Arlington is Julie Zelaska at more than $2.16M per sale
*Chart does not include internal sales agents
Most studies suggest that consumers are less concerned with measures like sales volume and more focused on the strength of communication and trustworthiness of the agent they’re working with, but market expertise and experience are still important factors for most people.
Many people see the low barrier to entry for real estate licensing, and the resulting high volume of agents, as a negative, but it also means that you have a lot of choices as a consumer and, with some effort, can make sure that you’re working with somebody who provides the type of service you’re looking for and the experience to match.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @Properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: What effect do you think Missing Middle will have on the Arlington housing market and community?
Answer: As expected, Missing Middle (MM) aka Expanded Housing Options (EHO) passed unanimously on Wednesday March 22. In short, the new zoning laws will allow development of 2-6 units on any lots previously designated exclusively for one (single-family detached) unit, effecting a majority of Arlington, if certain minimum lot size/requirements are met. Here’s a link to Arlington’s press release with details.
There is so much to digest, investigate, and learn about what MM means for the Arlington community and housing market that will come together in the coming weeks, months, and years as we determine the best implementation of the new zoning code, learn more about how the County will permit MM housing, and most importantly, analyze how the market will respond to different MM products in different parts of the County.
Results will be positive for some, maddening for others. Some results will be expected and others a complete surprise. Over time, slowly, Missing Middle will change our community…but that’s the point.
I will dedicate many posts here to Missing Middle in the coming weeks, months, and years and would love to hear from you (homeowners, renters, investors, architects, community activists, and on) about what you’re seeing and learning as we go.
To kick things off, I’ll share some initial thoughts on the zoning details and answer some questions I’ve received.
What are the highlights?
The code requirements I find most relevant to how MM will be implemented are:
MM is allowed in all residential single-family zoning districts (R-5, R-6, R-8, R-10, R-20) on conforming lots, meaning the lot meets the minimum size (total sqft and avg width), with the exception that R-5 lots must be at least 6,000 sqft instead of 5,000
Same set-backs and coverage requirements apply as previous/existing requirements for single-family development so the maximum building envelops will be similar to what you see now for most new single-family construction
Gross Floor Area (GFA), the total floor area (measured from exterior walls) less any garage space, maximums are determined by project density (number of units) and type (e.g. townhouse vs multi-plex) and will limit how big a project can be, even if the lot coverage and set-backs would allow for larger development (this effectively caps enormous development on large lots).
Where will MM be built?
Much of Arlington’s single-family housing was built prior to the 1960s and has been the target of builders and homeowners to tear down and build new homes for years. Missing Middle housing will follow a similar pattern of replacing existing older homes with new development.
We will likely see a concentration of MM development along transit corridors like Rosslyn-Ballston, Columbia Pike, Washington and Langston Blvd, and National Landing (Crystal/Pentagon City area) where multi-plexes (3-6 unit buildings) can sell for a premium, but MM development will also happen in neighborhoods outside of transit corridors, likely in the form of 2-3 unit offerings.
What will be built?
This is the million (billion?) dollar question: what will be built and where? The reality is that this will come down to what maximizes returns/profit for builders and investors.
The code allows for duplexes (one unit stacked on the other), semi-detached/townhouse (direct-entry homes sharing one or two vertical walls), and multi-plexes (mini condo/apartment buildings).
The Gross Floor Area maximums and standard set-back/lot coverage requirements significantly limit the size of the units that can be built, likely resulting in most MM units being ~1,000-2,400 finished sqft. If that’s the case, I think the code falls short of how the consumer would define “middle” housing and if there’s a disconnect between demand and what the code allows, developers may not like the returns enough for MM development to take off.
The GFA maximums (e.g. 7,500 sqft for three townhouses and 8,000 sqft for 5-6 unit multiplexes) have a limiting effect on larger lots that otherwise support a bigger structure based on set-back and coverage requirements and the set-back/lot coverage requirements likely prevent builders from reaching the GFA limits on smaller lots (e.g. you won’t get anywhere close to 8,000 sqft GFA on a small 6,000 sqft lot).
Minimum off-street parking requirements of .5 or 1 off-street space per unit, depending on proximity to transit, have been established but I think developers will ultimately build to demand rather than code minimums and demand will likely be for 1+ off-street parking in all locations and two off-street spaces in locations away from transit corridors.
Who will be building?
Projects will cost millions when factoring acquisition, construction, and selling costs which is too expensive and complex for most one-off “hobbyist” developers/flippers. I think that’s a good thing for the community because it means a more professional, thoughtful approach from developers who intend to do business many times over in the community and it means fewer chances for mistakes – building the wrong product in the wrong location.
The other concern is that we’ll be overrun by deep pocketed investors/private equity funds who will load up our neighborhoods with cheap 6-unit rentals. I don’t see this being the case. There are much easier ways to put $100M+ to use than buying 100 Arlington lots, each with different zoning requirements and market factors, spending 12-18+ months permitting and building, only to manage 100 separate locations for modest ROI (Arlington has very low rental ROI compared to other markets because property values are so high). We’ve seen very little national-level real estate activity here while it’s become popular in many other parts of the Country the last few years, and I expect it to remain that way.
I think that, for the most part, MM will be built by local and small regional developers like we currently see in the single-family market.
Will rentals take over my neighborhood?
I’ve heard a lot of concerns about 4-6 unit rental buildings popping up all over neighborhoods, but my initial assessment suggests the returns in non-transit oriented locations will be far too small to justify the amount of capital needed to build dedicated rentals and this is likely also true for many transit-oriented locations/lots.
There are bound to be some outliers where a rental makes sense or a mistake is made that lands a rental multi-plex in the wrong location that produces poor returns and devalues surrounding homes (this is the part of Missing Middle I hate most), but I don’t see MM leading to widespread development of dedicated rental properties, the land and construction costs are simply too expensive and unit sizes in multi-plexes too similar to what’s already widely available for rent in apartment/condo buildings.
How will lots be valued?
Lots being acquired for single-family development have mostly traded at 35-45% of the resale value of the house that replaces it. Local builders and agents have a good idea of what their costs and resale value will be so the valuation of lots has been straightforward. The cost of building MM housing won’t be too difficult to calculate, but projecting resale value/demand will be a much more difficult for a while to come and other risks, such as unknowns working with the County on something so new, also must be priced in.
Understanding the most efficient, and sometimes creative, way to construct MM to deliver the right product to the market based on location and assumed consumer demand will play a huge role in determining lot values. Some developers will be ultra conservative and prefer to stick with the tried-and-true approach of single-family development and others who have more experience in MM products (e.g. DC-based developers) may be more aggressive in their projections and valuations.
Many homeowners in older homes have just seen their property (land) values jump overnight, possibly by 10-20%, but there will also be plenty of homeowners whose lot and location don’t support MM as it’s currently defined and will see no change in land value.
When will they be built?
We’re probably 16-18+ months away from seeing the first MM properties delivered to market. The County won’t start taking permit applications until July 1 and I’m certain that the permit process for MM will take longer than the already cumbersome, months-long permit process for single-family development, then add 8-10+ months for construction.
If you’re interested in how your lot fits into Missing Middle or have a project you’re working on that you’d like to discuss, you can reach me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
You can read the full details of the code changes in the County’s press release and reference a library of information on Missing Middle here.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: How much has the market changed in the last six months?
Answer: Sometimes I write columns for myself as the audience, this is one of them…I hope some of you find it as interesting as I do!
Four months ago, you couldn’t watch/read the news without hearing about the collapsing real estate market but by late January, it was obvious that low supply would prevent that from happening. Demand even prevailed through February rate spikes because 2023 was the first year that new listing volume in February was lower than January.
Market Whiplash from Q4 ’22 to Q1 ‘23
It’s normal for the market to slow in Q4 and pick back up in Q1, but the change in market conditions from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023 was the most significant on record.
To get a sense of just how much of a shift we experienced between Q4 and Q1, I compared the key performance metrics of Net Sold (sold price less seller credits) to Original Asking Price percentage and the percentage of homes going under contract within ten days. I also compared all property types, condos, and detached/townhouse/duplex. Here are the highlights:
Buyers lost about 6.3% of negotiation leverage on non-condos since Q4. I think that percentage accurately represents how much the market value of most non-condo properties has changed in just a few months.
The performance data for non-condos is surprisingly similar for Q1 ’23 and in Q1 ’22, despite 2022 being the hottest market we’ve ever experienced.
Market pace in Q4 was really slow, with less than 1/3 of non-condos going under contract within ten days. In Q1 that number has jumped to almost 71%.
The condo market in Q1 ’23 is notably more competitive than it was in Q1 ’22, despite last year’s favorable market conditions (low rates). It took buyers a while to put the pandemic-led resistance to condos behind them, but it’s now clear that condo demand has returned.
Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there’s any supply relief in sight, with new listing activity trending at 10-20+ year lows so even moderate demand will create upwards pressure on prices and a fast-paced market. However, you can expect demand to ease up as summer approaches and you can always count softer demand in Q4.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: Do you have any information on when the Toll Brothers community in Dominion Hills will be for sale?
Answer: Construction is underway on Toll Brothers upcoming 9.5 acre community, The Grove at Dominion Hills, a massive (by Arlington/inside-the-beltway standards) development of 40 brand new detached homes that will start around $2M, formerly the site of the historically significant Febrey-Lothrop property.
As of Monday, March 13 they were fully framed and under-roof on their model and one of their “quick-move-in” homes, with a third in foundation, and a fourth getting ready for foundation; all along the existing N Madison St.
What I Know/Expect
Toll Brothers is as tight-lipped as it comes about new developments until their official public releases, but here’s what I know/expect:
The community will include 40 new single-family homes
Lot sizes will clock in around 60ft wide and about 8,000 SqFt (just over 1/6th of an acre), which is about 5% smaller than the average Arlington lot and about 10% bigger than the median Arlington lot (as we know from this column on Arlington lot sizes)
I expect home sizes to range from about 3,500-5,500 total finished square feet depending on lot dimensions and options
I expect most or all homes to include a two-car garage with either basement and main level entry depending on lot topography
Toll Brothers will offer a combination of “quick move-in” homes with pre-selected options/finishes and semi-custom homes that allow buyers to choose from a pre-determined selection of elevations (exterior design), floor plans, options, and finishes
Site Plan from the Dominion Hills Civic Association website
Details and Sales Opening Expected 2023
Toll Brothers is careful to not release pricing, floor plans, or most details about a project until their chosen public release date which is currently projected to occur in late summer 2023. Details will get released for the first time on their website with a community webpage. Sales are currently projected to start at the end of 2023, but that timing could easily move up or back depending on market conditions and work progress.
Toll Brothers determine their sales process based on market conditions and you can expect a multi-phased release, with prices increasing with each release (standard practice for new communities). Toll Brothers often use a combination of option incentives and preferred lender incentives to drive demand, which smaller builders do not offer.
In my experience, they usually implement an appointment system on a first-come, first serve/meet basis. Those who register online for an appointment first, can schedule the first appointments with a sales rep and have the chance to lock in lots early so interested buyers should go into those meetings prepared to put down a deposit.
Recently, and controversially, Toll Brothers implemented a blind auction system for lots at Arden, their luxury community in Great Falls. They set a starting price for a lot and had buyers submit forms stating how much they were willing to pay for the lot and what they wanted to build on it then chose the winner (presumably based on the highest lot bid).
If you’re an interested buyer, take advantage of the time between the public information release and the sales opening to learn as much about the community as possible, figure out what lots you prefer (note that the best lots usually come with a steep lot premium), compare your options with Toll Brothers to other new build opportunities, and be ready to make a decision with a lot-hold deposit at your first appointment.
What Will the Homes Looks Like?
In my opinion, Toll Brothers has some of the best-looking homes (exterior and interior) and smartest floor plans of any of the national/regional builders. I often reference their plans, options, and designs for inspiration on local new build projects.
Each of their communities gets a unique set of elevations (exterior design), plans, options, and selections to fit the local community, price point, lot dimensions, etc so we won’t know what we’re getting at The Grove at Dominion Hills until they release the community website, but I did my best to give interested buyers an idea…
The following image is posted in a Dominion Hills Civic Association article about the community, and I assume it was provided to them by Toll Brothers during a community meeting. The Randolph model looks to be a clear match to one of the two homes currently framed and under-roof that I took photos of above.
Local communities that may have a similar design aesthetic to The Grove:
While the above communities may have a similar design aesthetic, they are all being built on sites with much larger lot sizes so you’ll get wider homes with different floor plans. I searched nationally for other Toll Brothers sites that have smaller, more narrow lots like we’ll see at The Grove to try to find some examples of what the floor plans might look like:
There’s no way to overstate the scale of this development in Arlington and the surrounding communities given how unusual it is to even see a development of 2-3 detached in Arlington, let alone 40. For reference, there have been 79 new construction homes sold (per MLS) for $1.9M-$2.5M in Arlington since Jan 2021 (26+ months). I will provide more in-depth analysis on this once more information is released by Toll Brothers later this year.
If you are interested in buying a home in The Grove or other new construction homes in the area, you can reach me at Eli@EliResidential.com or on my cell at (703) 539-2529.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: I found data that shows housing prices in DC are back down to the 2018 levels but anecdotal evidence suggests they are not. Can you explain whether the data I found is accurate or something is off?
Answer: The median price ($545,500) for homes sold in January ’23 in Washington DC showed a 15.4% year-over-year drop and was the lowest median price for any month going back to January ’19.
Did DC Lose Four Years of Appreciation?
Given the economic and real estate climate since this summer, with endless headlines about market corrections, it would be easy to interpret the latest DC median price data as proof that the bottom is falling out of the real estate market. Unfortunately for our bear-market prognosticators, or those waiting for a market crash to buy property, the chart above is misleading and not representative of the actual market.
The drop in median price is due to an unusual data set and does not mean that real property values have fallen 15.4% year-over-year and/or lost four years of appreciation.
How The Data Steers Us Wrong
Real estate data can be tricky to use correctly (aka draw accurate conclusions) so if you want to make data-driven decisions, make sure you are leveraging the right data and working with somebody who understands the strengths and weaknesses of real estate data in your local market. Here’s why the January median Washington DC pricing data steers us wrong…
Timing: Pricing data lags by about 30-60 days, meaning the pricing data published in January is mostly made up of contract activity in November/December and is thus an indication of what happened in the market, not what is happening in the market. November and December are traditionally the slowest months of the year, with the least demand and lowest volume of homes being listed for sale. Sellers during this time of year also tend to be under more pressure to sell.
Combine that with the market deceleration in the 2nd half of the year due to rapidly rising interest rates and it made for an unusually slow real estate holiday season.
By the time the January pricing data was published in early February, market demand had already picked up significantly.
Sales Volume: Only 352 homes sold in DC in January compared to the 10-year monthly average of 718. Other than December ’22 (432 sales), no other month for the past 10+ years had registered under 450 sales and only five months registered less than 500 sales.
The unusually low sales volume means that the median price data can be skewed by unusual balances of less (or more) expensive homes in a given month, which is why most January pricing data comes in much lower than other months and why January ’23 was such an extreme version of that scenario.
There were just 46 single-family homes in the January data. As you can see from the chart below that shows the number of sales by price points, the distribution of sale prices skewed significantly lower in the January data with a big drop in the number of $1M+ homes sold but a more consistent number of homes under $600k sold. This leads to a much lower median price, but doesn’t mean home values are dropping, just that fewer expensive homes were sold.
Average Price: The chart of monthly average prices tells a different story about price trends, showing a clear upward trend since 2019/2020. However, as you can see, using average price presents its own set of data challenges because of how much variability there is on a month-to-month basis based on the type/balance of sales included in the data for any given month.
Buyers Still Won During Q4
I’ve shown a bunch of reasons why the low median price for January sales wasn’t an accurate representation of the market (home values not down 15.4% year-over-year or to 2018-2019 levels), but I should still point out that it was objectively a more favorable time for buyers to negotiate better deals, just not to the tune of double-digit price drops.
The average home that sold in December ’22 and January ’23 sold for 4.2% less than the original asking price, which is pretty good when you consider the average home in the spring of ’22 was selling for nearly 1% over ask. In my opinion, this is the best measure of how much home values actually dropped from spring ’22 to November/December ’22, which is likely about 5%.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
Question: What design trends are you seeing in homes these days?
Answer: Every year we cycle through new color, material, and design trends but it’s also rarely anything actually new just recycled trends from past generations (e.g. wallpaper is making a big comeback). Design isn’t exactly a strength of mine, so I defer to the experts for my annual design trends column. This year I pulled from Apartment Therapy, Architectural Digest, Forbes, National Association of Realtors, The Spruce, Veranda, Wall Street Journal for their expertise and selected trends that I’ve been seeing more of.
Moody Space: A return to rich, dramatic color palettes (purple, sand, maroon, cream, chocolate brown) swathing an entire room. These spaces will maintain their minimalistic integrity, with a focus on intimate and moody forms and textures. Painted or wallpapered walls in the same color as the ceiling, trim, shades, furnishings, and/or fabrics can be modern and cool. Moody tones make spaces feel intentional.
Organic Materials and Earth Tones: In today’s chaotic world, nature has a calming effect, because of this, organic materials and earth tones are timeless and unlikely to look dated any time soon. Expect lots of wood and colors inspired by nature such as peaceful blues and mossy greens. Nature-inspired art and live edge tables are other ways to incorporate the elements in our homes.
Art Deco: Bold patterned fabrics, rounded shapes and profiles (think round kitchen islands), and “lavishly unnecessary” nostalgic trinkets. Exploded in the United States in 1920’s and represented luxury, glamour, and exuberance.
Plush, Luxe Textiles: Expect to see more overstuffed sofas and armchairs; thick, plush area rugs; and ultra cozy bedding and bath accessories. Luxury textiles such as velvet are in high demand. Fabrics in jewel tones for an upscale look and high contrast colors in your fabrics and throws.
Accents with Personality
Wallpapered Power Rooms: This trend is going to get bigger in the new year. We can experiment in powder rooms with pattern play and colors that we may be cautious to put in our larger rooms. Lauren Robbins Interiors calls the powder room the “jewel box of the home” as they can add an element of surprise when you open the door.
The Slab Backsplash: April Gandy at Alluring Designs Chicago calls this one of her favorite design trends for 2023. “Slabs of quartz or marble are perfect for any design aesthetic and help to create a clean, seamless look in any kitchen,” Gandy says. “The lack of grout lines makes this backsplash super low maintenance and so easy to keep clean.”
Dark & Textured Countertops: With a focus on nature, leathered granite and soapstone countertops have an earthy, approachable quality and will start to appear in more new kitchens. Darker countertops will often be paired with lighter stained cabinets.
Lighting As a Mood: People are recognizing the importance of ambient lighting and the role it plays in giving a space a feeling. There is a growing interest in task lighting and layered lighting and creating different moods for different activities.
To see how these trends have shifted over the years, you can reference my 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018 design trend articles.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.
