Most Expensive Homes Sold in 2021 in the DMV

Question: What were some of the most expensive homes sold this year in the DMV?

Answer: Happy holidays and new year everybody! I hope you’ve been enjoying this unusually warm weather and reconnecting with family and friends for some holiday cheer, we all need it!

It’s always fun to look back at the most expensive homes sold in our nook of the world, so without further ado, let’s take a look at the most expensive homes sold this year in DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Note: this includes what is entered into the MLS, it’s certainly possible (likely) that expensive homes have traded hands outside of the MLS.

The most expensive home sold this year in all three DMV states is a 16,000 SqFt home built in 2018 that sits on 16.5 acres along the Potomac River that sold for an incredible $48,000,000! That beats out last year’s leading sale by $3M.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Arlington

Listing by Melanie Hayes, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty (3155 20th St N, Arlington, VA 22201)

While Arlington’s average and median prices are sky-high, it doesn’t have many ultra high-end properties we see elsewhere in the region. Arlington’s most expensive sale this year came from the top floor of the new luxury condo building, Pierce, at $3,920,000. The next most expensive home, pictured above, is a single-family home in Lyon Village, sold for $3,750,000.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Alexandria

Listing by Babs Beckwith, McEnearney Associates, Inc (711 Prince St, Alexandria, VA 22314)

The most expensive sale in Alexandria was a beautiful single-family home built in 1800 on a double lot in the heart of Old Town, that sold for $5,000,000.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Fairfax County

Listing by Heather Corey, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty (7979 E Boulevard Dr, Alexandria, VA 22308)

Fairfax County boasts the two most expensive sales in DC, MD, and VA at $48M and $15M. Both homes sit on the Potomac River.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Loudoun County

Listing by Lou Casciano, Pearson Smith Realty, LLC (40860 Browns Ln, Waterford, VA 20197)

The most expensive home in Loudoun County sold for $6,000,000 and sits on 423 acres with the original 1759 home still standing.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Washington DC

Listing by Michael Rankin, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty (2850 Woodland Dr NW, Washington, DC 20008)

The most expensive home sold in Washington DC is a 10,300 SqFt home built in 1927, that sits on one acre, for $13,000,000.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Montgomery County

Listing by Wendy Banner, Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc (9210 Fox Meadow Ln, Potomac, MD 20854)

The most expensive home sold in Montgomery County is a sprawling home in Potomac, MD, just past Congressional Country Club, coming in at $8,500,000.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in the DMV, Outside Greater DC Metro

Buyer represented by Cindy Polk, Compass (2337 Zulla Rd, Middleburg, VA 20117)

The most expensive sale in the DMV, outside of the greater DC Metro area, was for $14,500,000 for a 386 acre waterfront property in Oxford, MD which is just a short distance from St Michaels, MD.

I hope this makes for some fun conversation during the holidays about what type of ultra high-end you would buy if you could!

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com.

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How Many Homes Sell Off-Market or Pre-Market in Arlington?

Question: A friend of mine found a house off-market through their neighbor. Do you have any data that shows how many homes get sold before every hitting the market?

Answer: Most people assume that there are a lot more pre-market and off-market home sales than there really are. The data I used to determine likely pre/off-market activity suggests that only about 4-5% of Arlington homes sell without being listed first.

However, within that 4-5%, you have a wide range of circumstances that cause homes to be sold pre/off-market that aren’t really part of the “standard” sale process including tenants buying from their landlords, investor deals, custom homes, new construction condos, deals between neighbors/family/friends, and others. In this case, I’m loosely defining the “standard” sale process as a homeowner who begins the process of preparing their home for sale with the intention of offering it to the public.

So, the actual percentage of “standard” sales that follow a more traditional sales process that end up selling pre/off-market is likely much lower, and probably closer to 1-3% of total sales.

To come up with my pre/off-market estimates, I looked at the number of sold (Arlington) homes in the MLS that had zero days on market and the number of homes with zero and one days on market. A home with zero days on market was almost certainly sold pre/off-market and a portion of homes with one day on market were sold pre/off-market, but it’s impossible to tell from the data how many of those were pre-market vs how many were listed and the seller accepted an offer on the first day.

Not every pre/off-market sale gets entered into the MLS so those sales won’t show up anywhere in my data, however, I think this dataset gets us pretty close.

The chart below shows the percentage of homes each year that sold with zero or zero/one days on market.

Changes in Pre/Off-Market Rules

You’ll notice from the chart that there was a steady rise in pre/off-market deals through 2019, followed by a quick reduction in those deals since 2020.

For years prior to 2020, in order to gain a competitive advantage, agents and brokerages were creating their own “shadow” pre/off-market listing platforms/feeds that circumvented the cooperative agreements established through the MLS.

In the fall of 2019, Bright MLS (our regional MLS) announced major changes to protect the cooperation agreements of the MLS and required a home to be entered into the MLS within one business of any public marketing or advertising (For Sale sign, social media, email blasts, mailers, website, etc). Since this announcement, the number of pre/off-market deals have dropped substantially, for the betterment of both buyers and sellers, in my opinion.

I wrote about these rule changes in more detail and explained the MLS/Bright MLS concepts further in this October 2019 column.

Impact of New Homes on Housing Prices

Question: How much of Arlington’s high housing prices are attributed to new homes?

Answer: So far this year, the average sold price of a single-family detached (SFD) home in Arlington is $1,146,000, but if you remove the sales of new homes, which are averaging $1,810,000 in 2020, the average price for a SFD home in Arlington drops 7.4% to $1,060,000. Since 2015, the average price of a new SFD home in Arlington has increased by 21.6%, while the average price of resale homes has increase 25.3%.

Important note: I removed one sale from the 2015-2020 sales data; a January 2020 sale of 409/411 Chain Bridge Rd for $45M, because it is such an extreme anomaly in Arlington real estate data that it skews everything else too high. This is important to understand because most likely in other assessments of Arlington real estate data you see, this data point will be included and it will make it seem like the average sale price in Arlington, especially 22207, has increased much more than it actually has.

New Home Prices vs Resale Prices

The charts below compare the annual change in the average price of a new SFD home and a resale SFD home. The first chart shows all Arlington SFD sales and the second chart is just for the 22207 zip code which accounts for 54% of all new SFD home sales since 2015.

I was a little surprised by how uncorrelated average prices were between new and resale homes some years, I would have expected a strong linkage.

One data point that stands out is the huge jump in new home prices from 2017 to 2018, which seems to be tied to a significant drop in the number of transactions (lower supply) in 2018. It highlights just how sensitive the new home market is to supply swings and I wonder if that forecasts less growth in the future as more homes built in the last 5-8 years come up for resale, competing with similar new homes. I also wonder if a pause in buying by builders in the first half of this year may lead to a material shortage of new homes in 2021 and drive prices up for new homes selling next year.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.