Seller

How’s The Market?

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Seller , 0 Comment
How’s The Market?

Question: How is the real estate market through the first quarter?

Answer: “How’s the market?” Well, technically, that answer depends on what market you’re talking about – location, property type, price point, etc but for this column, I’ll provide an overview of what we’re generally seeing in the Arlington/Northern VA/DC area market these days.

  • The market is competitive
  • Demand is moderately high
  • New listing volume is historically low
  • Rates (Hopefully) Heading Down
  • Ignore National Data

The market is Competitive

Multiple offers, escalations, and reduced or no contingencies are common.

The data visualization below is from the listings that went under contract each of the last two weeks at our brokerage, RLAH @properties, of ~400 agents in the greater DC Metro area.

Demand is Moderately High

Demand is lower now than it was from late 2020 through early 2022, due to high interest rates.

The chart below shows the quarterly absorption ratio for Northern VA over the past decade. A higher ratio = higher demand. We’ve fallen slightly from the post-Amazon HQ2 year (this was primarily driven by the condo market) and Covid buying years, but demand is still well above the “norm” established from 2013-2018.

Graphical user interface Description automatically generated with low confidence

New Listing Volume is Historically Low

The lack of new listings is driving competition, not high demand.

The chart below highlights the dramatic drop in new listing volume for the DC Metro area for Q4 and Q1, with about 10,000 fewer homes listed for sale during the most recent Q4/Q1 compared to previous years, or a ~25-30% drop for most DC area localities.

Timeline Description automatically generated

Rates (Hopefully) Heading Down

Inflation data suggests we’re heading firmly in the right direction and that puts downward pressure on interest rates. However, turmoil in the banking sector (SVB Collapse, commercial building loans) has caused demand for mortgage-backed securities to drop thus putting upward pressure on interest rate pricing.

Here’s a collection of some of the most recent interest rate forecasts through 2023:

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Ignore National Data

Different markets, especially west coast (struggling) vs east coast (appreciating), are seeing very different data and make national data pretty useless to the individual homeowner/buyer.

The charts below show the wide range of national real estate price forecasts and a chart showing performance for major regional real estate markets around the country. Notice the variation between regional markets and you can understand why combining all of that data into one national pricing datapoint isn’t helpful.

Chart Description automatically generated
Chart, bubble chart Description automatically generated

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

2,491 Agents Sold Real Estate in Arlington Last Year

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Seller , , 0 Comment
2,491 Agents Sold Real Estate in Arlington Last Year

Question: How many different real estate agents are there doing business in Arlington?

Answer: There were 2,795 real estate transactions in Arlington last year, totaling $2.264B in sales volume. This is down from over 3,500 transactions in 2021 that totaled $2.786B in sales volume, but very similar to the 2019 and 2020 numbers.

There were 2,491 licensed real estate agents involved in at least one sale in Arlington in 2022. Each transaction usually includes two real estate agents – one representing the buyer and another representing the seller.

I looked over the 2022 Arlington transaction data and pulled out some interesting highlights below. Of note, there are many real estate teams that enter all sales under one agent’s name, so in these cases, individual numbers represent the production of many agents rolled into one agent’s name, but I don’t have transparency into that data. Here’s a link to an article I wrote in 2019 explaining how different agents/teams are structured.

  • 63% of agents who did business last year in Arlington had just one sale in Arlington (many of those had more sales outside of Arlington) and accounted for 24.4% of the total sales volume
  • 2.6% (65) of agents handled 10+ transactions in Arlington
  • 0.36% (9) of agents handled 20+ transactions in Arlington
  • 1,666 different agents represented buyers, 66 (4%) represented 5+ buyers
  • 1,379 different agents represented sellers, 115 (8.3%) represented 5+ sellers
  • The top 20% producing agents in Arlington accounted for 61% of sales volume
  • Keri Shull and her team once again led Arlington in total transaction and sales volume, representing 2.7% of buyers and sellers in Arlington and just over $94M in total sales volume, but for the first time I can recall, we have new leaders in the listing category, with Betsy Twigg leading listing sales volume at $46.5M and Kay Houghton leading listing transactions at 58
  • The highest average sale price with at least four transactions in Arlington is Julie Zelaska at more than $2.16M per sale

*Chart does not include internal sales agents

Most studies suggest that consumers are less concerned with measures like sales volume and more focused on the strength of communication and trustworthiness of the agent they’re working with, but market expertise and experience are still important factors for most people.

Many people see the low barrier to entry for real estate licensing, and the resulting high volume of agents, as a negative, but it also means that you have a lot of choices as a consumer and, with some effort, can make sure that you’re working with somebody who provides the type of service you’re looking for and the experience to match.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @Properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

Six Tips for Selling to a Builder

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Seller , 0 Comment
Six Tips for Selling to a Builder

Question: I’m planning to sell my home to a builder to be torn down, do you have any advice?

Answer: For many homeowners with older, smaller homes in expensive markets, selling to a builder is the easy and most profitable option when you’re ready to move. If you live in a home like this, you probably get hundreds of calls and letter from builders, investors, and real estate agents offering to buy your home as-is.

A brick house with a chimney Description automatically generated with low confidence

Here are six tips and ideas if you’re considering this option…

Don’t Overvalue Cash

The idea of somebody paying cash for your home sounds exciting and more reliable than somebody getting funds from a bank. “They pay cash” is one of the most common reasons I hear from homeowners explaining why they prefer selling to a builder.

The truth is that many builders don’t buy homes with a mountain of cash they have sitting around; they rely on strong banking relationships to finance their purchase with cash-like deals (the money is available quickly and easily).

The real value of cash is that a buyer can close quickly and does not require any bank approval, but a cash-like deal from a well-qualified buyer working with a great bank can often mirror this by removing any finance or appraisal contingency and closing as fast as the bank will allow (many can close in 2-3 weeks).

The contingency (or study period) structure and Earnest Money Deposit terms are more important than the funding source being a buyer’s private cash balance vs a trusted bank/lender. I would also argue that it’s more likely that an individual or builder cash-buyer will run into a cash crunch prior to closing than an established bank/lender.

Your Home May be Worth More to a Homeowner

It’s no secret how hard it is to find entry level homes these days. You may think that your current home with a small kitchen, old roof, and unfinished basement is only worth the land it sits on, but buyers are hurting for inexpensive homes, even if they need loads of improvements. Don’t assume that just because your home is small and dated that a builder is your only option.

Make sure you’re comparing builder offers to what you can get on the open market, taking into consideration other financial (e.g. differences in commission) and non-financial (e.g. timeline and showings) differences between the two routes. There may be little downside to testing the open market before committing to a builder, depending on your situation.

Your community will also appreciate your contribution to preserving the local tree canopy!

Builders Can Offer Attractive Rent-Backs

A rent-back means that you can live in your home after closing (aka after getting paid) for a specified period, usually for little or no cost, for months after a sale. For many sellers, this extra time is perfect for searching for your next home or apartment, with cash in-hand, or taking time to clear out decades of personal belongings.

A normal buyer can also offer a rent-back, and are often happy to, but if a home is being purchased using a mortgage for a primary residence, the buyer cannot offer a rent-back over two months. A builder, even if the funding comes from a bank, or cash buyer has no restriction on the length of rent-back. It’s well within reason to negotiate 3-4+ months of free or low-cost rent-back from a builder after closing.

Share in the Builder’s Profits

Jealous of the profit a builder will generate from building a new home on your lot? Rather than selling your home to a builder, consider negotiating an equity stake in the project and getting paid based on the sale of the new home. It’ll take 10-12+ months longer to be paid and there’s more risk, but you can make a lot more than you would selling your existing home.

A picture containing building, outdoor, wooden, old Description automatically generated

Use Missing Middle to Upgrade, Stay Home

The new Missing Middle zoning code may be a great solution for many Arlington homeowners by allowing you to partner with a builder to build a Missing Middle product (duplex, townhouse, or small condo building), live in one, designed to your specifications, and leverage profit sharing on the others to significantly reduce the cost of your new home.

The cherry-on-top is getting to stay in the same place you have lived in for years/decades!

Realtor Representation Can Be a Net Benefit

A direct sale without agents/commissions is one of the primary selling points builders offer and it’s certainly a good one, but representation and commissions come in many shapes and sizes that sellers can benefit from when selling to a builder. Benefits range from understanding how to measure the value/risk of contract terms like a study period or deposit, knowing what to negotiate for based on your needs/preferences, or effectively soliciting more bids to ensure you’re getting the best price.

Even though working directly with a builder can be simple, it’s important to remember that a builder’s core business is acquiring lots with favorable terms/prices, which runs counter to your best interests.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @Properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

The Real Estate Market Whiplash is Crazy

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Seller , 0 Comment
The Real Estate Market Whiplash is Crazy

Question: How much has the market changed in the last six months?

Answer: Sometimes I write columns for myself as the audience, this is one of them…I hope some of you find it as interesting as I do!

Four months ago, you couldn’t watch/read the news without hearing about the collapsing real estate market but by late January, it was obvious that low supply would prevent that from happening. Demand even prevailed through February rate spikes because 2023 was the first year that new listing volume in February was lower than January.

Market Whiplash from Q4 ’22 to Q1 ‘23

It’s normal for the market to slow in Q4 and pick back up in Q1, but the change in market conditions from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023 was the most significant on record.

To get a sense of just how much of a shift we experienced between Q4 and Q1, I compared the key performance metrics of Net Sold (sold price less seller credits) to Original Asking Price percentage and the percentage of homes going under contract within ten days. I also compared all property types, condos, and detached/townhouse/duplex. Here are the highlights:

  • Buyers lost about 6.3% of negotiation leverage on non-condos since Q4. I think that percentage accurately represents how much the market value of most non-condo properties has changed in just a few months.
  • The performance data for non-condos is surprisingly similar for Q1 ’23 and in Q1 ’22, despite 2022 being the hottest market we’ve ever experienced.
  • Market pace in Q4 was really slow, with less than 1/3 of non-condos going under contract within ten days. In Q1 that number has jumped to almost 71%.
  • The condo market in Q1 ’23 is notably more competitive than it was in Q1 ’22, despite last year’s favorable market conditions (low rates). It took buyers a while to put the pandemic-led resistance to condos behind them, but it’s now clear that condo demand has returned.

Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there’s any supply relief in sight, with new listing activity trending at 10-20+ year lows so even moderate demand will create upwards pressure on prices and a fast-paced market. However, you can expect demand to ease up as summer approaches and you can always count softer demand in Q4.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

Tax Assessments vs Market Value

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Seller , 0 Comment
Tax Assessments vs Market Value

Question: How close are the County’s tax assessments to actual market values?

Answer: Earlier this month, Arlington announced that the next round of annual tax reassessments would increase the total residential assessment by 4.5% (this is overall, changes to individual home/land values will vary significantly). This change is meant to align with the increase in market values of Arlington homes, but assessed values remain well below actual market values for most homes. In fact, 81% of homes sold in 2022 sold for more than their most recent tax assessment value.

Homes in Arlington that sold in 2021 sold for an average of 8.7% (median 8.4%) above their most recent tax assessment.

Homeowners in the 22205 zip code benefit the most by underassessments, for a second year in a row, with an average difference between 2022 sold prices and their assessments of 14.8%, or over $194,000. Owners of single-family homes and townhouses (12.9% average difference) benefit more from underassessments than condo owners (4.1% average difference).

If County assessments were representative of actual market values, the average Arlington homeowner would pay over $900 more per year in property taxes, so don’t forget to send the Department of Real Estate Assessments a thank you card!

The following chart details the difference between how much a home in Arlington sold for in 2022 compared to its most recent County-assessed value:

Table Description automatically generated

If you believe that the County’s assessment of your home’s value is too high, you have the right to appeal the assessed value; the deadline is March 1.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

Most Expensive Homes Sold in the DMV in 2022

media4erg Arlington, Buyer, Home Owner, Investor, Seller , , , , 0 Comment
Most Expensive Homes Sold in the DMV in 2022

Question: What were some of the most expensive homes sold this year in the DMV?

Answer: Happy holidays and new year everybody!

It’s always fun to look back at the most expensive homes sold in our nook of the world, so without further ado, let’s take a look at the most expensive homes sold this year in DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Note: this includes what is entered into the MLS, it’s certainly possible (likely) that expensive homes have traded hands privately outside of the MLS.

The most expensive home sold this year in all three DMV states is a beautiful 550-acre estate, with a private 18-hole golf course, in Upperville VA that sold for $23.5M! Despite the hefty price tag, it falls well short of the record sales from 2018, 2020, and 2021 that all cleared $40M.

Listing by John Coles, Thomas and Talbot Estate Properties, Inc (1584 Rokeby Rd, Upperville, VA)

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Arlington

Listing by Robert Hryniewicki, Washington Fine Properties (3433 N Albemarle St, Arlington, VA)

Arlington’s average and median prices are sky-high, but the area generally likes ultra high-end properties we see elsewhere in the region. Arlington’s most expensive sale this year is a new build in Country Club Hills clocking in at 7,450 SqFt, seven bedrooms, seven full bathrooms, and two half baths. The property sits on an unusually large (for Arlington) .39-acre lot.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Alexandria

Listing by Preston Innerst, EYA Marketing (5 Pioneer Mill #502, Alexandria, VA)

The most expensive sale in Alexandria is a townhouse built in 1800 in Old Town that sits on nearly ¼ acre with over 6,000 SqFt and seven bedrooms. Pictured above is the second priciest sale in Alexandria, a waterfront penthouse condo in Robinson Landing with nearly 2,800 SqFt for $4,509,000.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Fairfax County

Sold by Daniel Heider, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty (576 Innsbruck Ave, Great Falls, VA)

The most expensive sale in Fairfax County comes in at $11M for a 20,000 SqFt home recently built one block from Langley High School. Pictured above is the second most expensive sale in Fairfax County of a sprawling Great Falls residence on five acres, built in 2007, sold for $10.5M.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Loudoun County

Listing by Cricket Bedford, Thomas and Talbot Estate Properties (21827 Quaker Ln, Middleburg, VA)

The most expensive sale in Loudoun County for $4,950,000 of nearly 190 acres with an active Angus cattle operation.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Washington DC

Listing by Michael Rankin, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty (3017 O St NW, Washington, DC)

3017 O St NW in Georgetown is Washington DC’s most expensive sale, at $11.5M, for nearly 8,000 SqFt on over ¼ acre.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Maryland

Listing by Brad Kappel, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty (3235 Harness Creek Rd, Annapolis, MD)

The most expensive sale in Maryland is a beautiful waterfront home in Annapolis with over 3.5 acres and nearly 12,000 SqFt, built in 2014 for $12,000,000.

I hope this makes for some fun conversation during the holidays about what type of ultra high-end home you would buy if you win the lottery! But I’ll be honest, the most expensive homes this year aren’t nearly as impressive as last year’s (link if you want it).

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

Arlington Condo Market Performance Metrics

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Home Owner, Investor, Seller , , , 0 Comment
Arlington Condo Market Performance Metrics

Question: How has Arlington’s condo market reacted to higher interest rates?

Answer: In last week’s column, I looked at performance metrics for detached homes in Arlington, shared my thoughts on local pricing behavior, and discussed news about the national vs local real estate market. This week we will look at the underlying performance metrics in Arlington’s robust condo market.

Underlying Arlington Market Performance Data for Condos

Here’s how I approached the data used in this week’s analysis:

  • Low-, mid-, and high-rise condos only
  • Resale data only, no new construction
  • All data is presented by the month a home was listed in so we can measure how home sales performed based on the month they came to market
  • Net Sold = Sold Price less Seller Credits
  • I used data from 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022 because I think it offers a helpful snapshot of recent Arlington markets to compare 2022 to. 2017 was our last “normal” market because Amazon HQ2 was announced Nov 2018 and that kicked off a condo craze. 2019 was the first full year with the Amazon bump, but pre-COVID market, and 2021 was a full year of the COVID-driven shift in condo demand.

I either did not use or must caution your interpretation of this year’s August-November data because it is incomplete for purposes of this analysis. There are 13, 26, 39, and 42 condos actively for sale that were listed in August, September, October, and November, respectively, which will influence the performance metrics for those months when they do contract/close and most likely will result in worse performance metrics than those months currently show.

There are only 10 condos still for sale listed January-July that will likely pull down the performance metrics for those months once they contract/close, but not enough for me to be concerned about the resulting data being presented in this analysis.

Business as Usual for Condos

While the detached market was on fire in 2021 and early 2022, the condo market performed mostly along the lines of historical metrics, except for one month, February 2022, when average sold prices climbed slightly above the original asking price. As a result, high interest rates have led to a more modest reversal in pricing behavior over the last six months, compared to the detached market.

The only time in the last 15 years that we’ve seen a real acceleration in condo prices was during 2019 (and pre-COVID 2020) as a result of Amazon’s HQ2 announcement.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Pace of the Condo Market Slightly Below Normal

We had a few months during the peak of the 2022 market where the pace of sales came close to the craziness we experienced in 2019, after Amazon announced HQ2, but average days on market has returned to its normal seasonal trends. As more data rolls in for closings in August-December, I expect the average days on market for the last 3-4 months of 2022 to exceed historical averages, but not by much.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

One of my favorite performance metrics is the percentage of homes that sell within 10/30 days. I think it beats average and median days on market for a true understanding of the pace of a market.

As opposed to average days on market, these charts indicate that high interest rates have slowed the pace of the condo market beyond the usual seasonal slowdown, with a notably slow October where just 38% of condos listed sold within 30 days. Expect to see these metrics fall even further as more condos listed after July contract and close.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated
Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Looking Forward

Condo pricing tends to be pretty stable and movements up or down are relatively small, with the exception of major events like Amazon HQ2 (rapid appreciation) and COVID (rapid, temporary depreciation), so expect a return to stable and predictable pricing in our condo market where we’re used to seeing 0-2% appreciation year-over-year.

The effect of high interest rates will likely be felt most in the slow pace of the market. The pace will almost certainly increase in Q1 2023, which means we can expect about 1/3 of condos to sell within the first 10 days and about 2/3 to sell within the first 30 days during the spring selling season. 

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

Arlington Housing Market Performance Metrics

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Home Owner, Investor, Seller , , , 0 Comment
Arlington Housing Market Performance Metrics

Question: How have you seen the Arlington housing market react to higher interest rates?

Answer: I hope everybody had a fantastic Thanksgiving. The results of last week’s Dark Meat vs White Meat poll were impressive. With 559 votes in as of this morning, only three votes separated white meat as the preferred part of the turkey over dark meat! We may have found the only vote closer than a Georgia Senate Race!

National vs Local Market Expectations

With daily news about the nationwide (and global) housing collapse resulting from parabolic price appreciation followed by parabolic interest rates, I want to use this week’s column to check-in on what we’re seeing locally and remind everybody that what you read in the news is generally going to be the most attention-grabbing data points and that our market is likely to experience a much more modest correction than many other markets nationwide, as we saw during the Great Recession.

My Take on Local Pricing Behavior

I shared some detailed thoughts and observations last month in a column addressing price drops in Arlington and the TL;DR version is that 1) yes prices have dropped relative to their peak this spring, 2) there’s not nearly enough data available locally to say with any statistical confidence how much that drop has been, and 3) my observation was/is that market-wide in Arlington we’ve lost most/all of the appreciation we saw in the first 4-5 months of 2022 ,but 2021 prices are still mostly holding up. Keep in mind that in a volatile, low inventory market (current state) pricing is more randomized and case-by-case than it usually is, so you’ll see plenty of individual examples that buck the aggregated trends/assumptions.

Underlying Arlington Market Performance Data for Detached Homes

This week, I thought I’d share some charts of underlying market performance metrics to help illustrate what our market is experiencing. Here’s how I approached the data this week:

  • Detached (single-family) homes only. I’ll probably look at condos next week.
  • Resale data only aka no new construction because performance metrics used in this column for new construction aren’t usually representative of the market
  • I used data from 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022 because I think it offers a helpful snapshot of recent Arlington markets to compare 2022 to. 2017 was our last “normal” market because Amazon HQ2 was announced Nov 2018 and that sent data in unusual directions. 2019 was the first full year with the Amazon bump, but pre-COVID market, and 2021 was a full year of COVID frenzy buying with normal seasonal behavior (2020 was totally out of whack on seasonality).
  • All data is presented by the month a home was listed in so we can measure how home sales performed based on the month they came to market instead of the month they closed (closed data is a lagging performance indicator)
  • Net Sold = Sold Price less Seller Credits

**An important caveat to this data is that I either did not use or must caution your interpretation of this year’s September, October, and November data because it is incomplete for purposes of this analysis. There are 15, 22, and 19 homes actively for sale that were listed in September, October, and November, respectively, which will have a significant influence on the performance metrics for those months when they do contract/close and most likely will result in worse performance metrics than those months currently show.

Note there are 2 homes for sale listed in each month May-July and 7 for sale from August that will likely pull down the performance metrics for those months once they contract/close, but not enough for me to be concerned about the resulting data being presented for those months

Net Sold Price to Original Ask down 9.3% in 6 Months

The average net sold to original ask dropped from a March peak of 105.9% to 96.6% in August. I suspect that once September-November listings close and we can start filling in those fields, we’ll see that number fall further but maybe not significantly because asking prices have started to react to weaker market conditions and many sellers are coming off their expectations for spring 2022 prices.

Of note, this performance metric is coming more in-line with 2017 metrics. I’ll be interested to see if performance metrics stabilize around 2017 numbers, pre-Amazon HQ2, or if they worsen. My guess is that they’ll worsen slightly compared to 2017 through the end of the year and come more into balance in 2023 (pending interest rate movements).

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Average Days on Market 4.8x Higher in August than February ‘22

Unsurprisingly, the average days on market has skyrocketed relative to earlier this year from 9 days in February to 43 days in August. August ’22 is still lower than August ’17, but the August average will increase once the 7 properties still for sale from August contract/close. 

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Homes Selling Within 10/30 Days Go from Record High to Low

One of my favorite performance metrics is the percentage of homes that sell within 10/30 days. I think it beats average and median days on market for a true understanding of the pace of a market. As opposed to average days on market, these charts indicate that our market pace is slower than 2017, on a seasonal basis.

We’ve gone from 82% of homes listed in March selling within 10 days to just 27% in October. Similarly, at least 90% of homes listed February-April sold within 30 days compared to 45% and 44% selling within 30 days in August and October, respectively. That is a massive change in market pace within 4 months!

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated
Chart Description automatically generated

Looking Ahead

I expect the performance metrics of August-October to worsen as more of those listings contract/close and November-December to come in below 2017 numbers. It’ll be a bit difficult to truly understand the aggregate effect on pricing because Arlington is a relatively small housing market, but I’ll do my best to come up with some accurate measures once we’re far enough into 2023 and enough 2022 listings have sold. Ultimately, the tale of local home values will be told in how long it takes interest rates to settle back down into the expected 4.5-5.5% range (don’t hold out for sub-4% rates again).

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

Assumable Low Interest Rate Loans

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Seller , , 0 Comment
Assumable Low Interest Rate Loans

Question: Is it possible to take over a seller’s existing loan if they have a low interest rate?

Answer: Thank you to our Veterans and Active-Duty military for your service.

In keeping up with the theme of last week’s column, addressing popular mortgage product/strategies, and in honor of Veterans Day, this week I’ll cover assumable VA loans.

An assumable loan is a loan that can be transferred from a seller to a buyer, allowing the buyer to maintain the interest rate of the seller’s existing loan rather than accept a market-rate interest rate. This can be valuable in a high-interest rate environment like we’re in now when most homeowners have an interest rate well below current market rates.

To help me provide the best information about assumable VA loans, I reached out to Skip Clasper of Sandy Spring Bank (sclasper@sandyspringbank.com), who I highly recommend for a range of loan products including VA loans, construction/rehab loans, and jumbo loans.

Only Some Loans Are Assumable

VA loans (available to Veterans, service members and surviving spouses), FHA loans, and USDA loans are the only traditional loan products that are assumable. They make up a relatively small percentage of existing home loans in Arlington (likely single-digit percentage of total loans). I’m not aware of any conventional loans that can be assumed.

Key Details about Assuming a VA Loan

There are some important details and caveats to assuming a VA loan that both buyers and sellers need to understand prior to transferring a loan:

  1. Buyers do NOT have to be a Veteran or otherwise qualify for a VA loan to assume a VA Loan
  2. Sellers can NOT obtain a new VA loan until the previously assumed loan is paid off (or refinanced out of) unless the new buyer is a Veteran and uses their eligibility on the assumed loan
  3. It is less expensive (closing costs) to assume a loan than to originate a new loan.  The VA Funding fee is only 0.5% for assumable VA loans.
  4. You need a down payment that covers the gap between the assumable loan balance and the purchase price. For example, if the seller’s loan balance is $200,000 and the purchase price is $500,000, the buyer is assuming $200,000 is debt and will have to cover the remaining $300,000 via down payment or alternative debt such as a second trust.
  5. Buyers need to qualify for the loan using normal income, debt, and credit guidelines

As you can probably determine from the above details, there are only a limited number of scenarios where assuming a VA loan makes sense for both parties. The biggest hurdle to VA loan assumption is that the VA loan eligibility stays with the loan so if the buyer does not have their own VA loan eligibility, the seller must be sure they are okay giving up this very valuable benefit until the new buyer pays it off or refinances.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.

How do you prefer your seller discount? 2-1 Buydown Review

reallivingathomeblog Arlington, Buyer, Seller , 0 Comment
How do you prefer your seller discount? 2-1 Buydown Review

Question: The seller of a home I’m interested in is offering a 2-1 Buydown incentive. Should I accept that or negotiate for something else?

Answer: Higher mortgage rates have re-opened conversations about creative ways to help buyers reduce their rates and monthly payments to incentivize demand: assumptions, seller-financing, buy-downs, adjustable mortgages, and more. Over the coming months, I’ll start covering some of these options to share pros and cons of each.

This week, we will look at the 2-1 Buydown, which has captured a lot of attention lately and is being marketed as a way for seller’s to draw buyer interest by helping them reduce their monthly payments during the first two years of their loan.

I’d like to thank Trey Reed of Intercoastal Mortgage (trey@icmtg.com) and Brad Pace of US Bank (brad.pace@usbank.com) for their contributions on this article.

POLL: How would you prefer to allocate a $10,000 benefit from the seller of a home you are buying?

Answer 1: $10,000 off interest payments spread over two years (2-1 Buydown)

Answer 2: $10,000 in points to permanently lower your interest rate (“lose” benefit if you sell or refi)

Answer 3: $10,000 off closing costs (up-front cash savings)

Answer 4: $10,000 reduction to the purchase price

What is a 2-1 Buydown?

A 2-1 Buydown is a seller-paid benefit to the borrower/buyer that reduces their mortgage rate by 2% in the first year and 1% in the second year. In the simplest terms, it allows the seller to pre-pay some of the buyer’s interest payments for the first two years of the loan to reduce their monthly payments.

It generally equates to a savings on total interest payments equal to ~2.35% of the loan amount, over the two-year period. The seller pays that amount to the bank at closing, which shows up as an additional cost to the seller on their settlement statement. The 2-1 Buydown is something sellers may offer up-front or that buyers can negotiate for.

Ultimately, the question (which is reflected in the above poll) is whether or not the dollars allocated by the seller to a 2-1 Buydown are best used there versus towards buyer closing costs (reduces buyers out-of-pocket), lowering the purchase price (reduces interest/payments over the life of the loan and loan payoff amount), or points (a permanent reduction in interest rate rather than pre-paying some interest for two years).

It’s important to note that the 2-1 Buydown doesn’t change the qualification requirements (e.g. Debt to Income ratio limits) for the borrower (buyer). They must qualify for the loan at the full mortgage rate, not the discounted rate.

There is also a less commonly used 3-2-1 product that lasts three years and reduces the rate by 3%, 2%, and 1% in years 1-3 of the loan.

Example of a 2-1 Buydown

Here’s an example from Brad Pace at US Bank of a 2-1 Buydown, compared to using the same dollars to reduce the purchase price:

Standard Deal w/o Any Negotiated Discount:

  • Purchase Price: $1,500,000
  • Loan Amount: $1,200,000 (20% down)
  • Interest Rate (7yr ARM): 5.75%
  • Principle & Interest (P&I) Payment: $7,002

Deal w/ 2-1 Buydown:

  • First Year P&I Savings: $17,345.85 ($5,557 P&I payment)
  • Second Year P&I Savings: $8,917.27 ($6,259 P&I payment)
  • Buyer Savings in First Two Years (also the cost to seller): $26,263.12

Deal w/ Cost of 2-1 Buydown Applied to Price:

  • Purchase Price: $1,500,000 – $26,263 = $1,473,737
  • Loan Amount: $1,178,989 (20% down)
  • P&I: $6,880
  • Buyer pays $23,328 more in first two years compared to the 2-1 Buydown and will take ~16 years for the lower ($122/mon P&I) payment on the price reduction to breakeven with the cost savings of the 2-1 Buydown. However, buyers also benefit from a lower loan balance which means more equity and more proceeds when they sell.

Pros and Cons of the 2-1 Buydown

While the 2-1 Buydown may be considered a helpful marketing tool for sellers to draw interest in their home, buyers ultimately need to decide whether they feel it’s the right allocation of dollars being offered by the seller compared to alternatives like closing costs, price reduction, or points.

For me, I think it’s worth considering if you’ve already negotiated for the seller to pay 100% of closing costs and there’s still enough negotiation room to cover the cost of a 2-1 Buydown and the savings in the first two years is more valuable to you then longer-term payment reduction and loan balance reduction you get by lowering the purchase price.

Pros of a 2-1 Buydown:

  • Will reduce your payments significantly more during the first two years than an equivalent reduction in the purchase price
  • If the buyer refinances their loan or sells before the two years of the 2-1 Buydown is complete, the bank will credit any remaining balance on the 2-1 Buydown against the payoff of the loan. This makes it different (and potentially more valuable) than buying down a rate permanently with points because you lose that benefit upon refi or resale.
  • Gives buyer more time to adjust to their full mortgage payment if they expect a raise or additional source of income within 2-3 years from their purchase
  • Gives buyer extra cashflow in first two years to help with moving expenses including buying furniture

Cons of a 2-1 Buydown:

  • If the 2-1 Buydown is in lieu of seller paying buyer closing costs, buyer may benefit more by having those funds used to reduce their closing costs which results in an up-front cash savings instead of receiving that same dollar amount spread over two years (money now vs over time)
  • Many banks do not carry a 2-1 Buydown option so the “natural” interest rate on a 2-1 Buydown can be higher and some banks only offer it on their 30yr fixed rate loans, not ARMs or Jumbo loans
  • Over the long run, a reduction in purchase price (loan amount) might save you more money than the up-front savings of a 2-1 Buydown. Discuss this trade-off with your loan advisor.

Trey Reed of Intercoastal Mortgage shared his thoughts on the 2-1 Buydown program in this short three minute video.

Let me know what you think about the 2-1 Buydown in the poll and/or comments section!

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to Eli@EliResidential.com. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist.
Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH @properties, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. (703) 390-9460.