Poll: Will You Be in Arlington in Five Years?

Question: Do you expect Arlington to suffer from an urban migration to less populous areas due to COVID?  

Answer: There has been no shortage of articles written about COVID’s impact on desirability of urban living and areas like NYC and SF have already seen drops in demand. I wrote a couple of weeks ago that demand (measured by absorption rate) in Arlington seemed to be tapering slightly, while increasing across Northern VA. This could be a sign that some buyers are choosing more distant/less populous communities, but it could also be a result of how little inventory there is and how quickly prices have gone up.

POLL

Are you more or less likely to be an Arlington resident five years from now due to the impact COVID has had on you or your partner’s life/commuting requirements?

Participate in the poll at ARLnow.

I don’t think we’ll know how COVID will impact long-term demand in Arlington until we see whether or not it results in substantial changes to where/how people work. Most people I’ve spoken to don’t know whether their employers will make permanent changes to telework schedules or flex hours, or whether they will return to their pre-COVID work routines once life returns to normal.

Commute times are a top-three consideration for most Arlington residents so it’s hard to argue that a trend towards 50% or more telework days per month won’t reduce housing demand in Arlington. The next decade is also likely to bring major improvements to autonomous driving and the commuting experience which will allow some to bear longer commutes by increasing productivity during the drive.

But just how much would net demand change? I can also see a scenario where Arlington residents who leave for more space and/or less expensive housing are replaced by new residents from cities like DC, NYC, or SF looking for a better balance of urban and suburban life.

Major shifts in telework and commuting may reduce long-term demand for Arlington housing, but I think it’s far from a doomsday scenario where the bottom drops out of the market. Commuting is still just one factor of a much larger set of needs and wants that Arlington offers its residents so it’s more likely to result in tapered housing appreciation over the long-term, rather than negative growth.

Let’s check back in on this in 2025 to see how we’re doing…

Awesome Heatmap of Neighborhood Turnover

Question: Which Arlington neighborhoods have the highest number of homes listed for sale?

Answer: I’m excited to show-off the first project to come out of a new data-visualization partnership so that I can make the data analysis I do a bit easier to digest (and prettier).

The chart below shows the Arlington neighborhoods with the most and least turnover of single-family detached homes, using the last 20 years of home sales.

Top Five Neighborhoods

The neighborhoods with the most turnover over the last 20 years are:

  1. Bluemont (1,406)
  2. East Falls Church (1,157)
  3. Yorktown (863)
  4. Donaldson Run (853)
  5. Rock Spring (848)

The nice thing about great data visualization is that it does most of the talking, so there aren’t nearly as many words for you to read as my usual column. Cheers to great data visualization and fewer words!

Have a great July 4th everybody!

Black Lives Matter

Answer: I was proud of the statement ARLnow and the rest of the Local News Network (LNN) sites made on Friday, taking a public stance supporting the Black Lives Matter movement.

Do people care what I think?

I honestly didn’t think so, but it has become clear to me over the last couple of weeks that taking a stance on the BLM movement is important to many of my colleagues, friends, neighbors, and clients. For them, I want to state it in my most public forum: BLACK LIVES MATTER.

There are too many people better equipped to write/talk about the topic than me, so I will simply link to couple of them.

A few years ago, a close friend recommended Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates and it had a profound impact on my understanding of privilege and systemic racism. The audiobook is narrated by the author, making his words even more powerful.

I have called RLAH Real Estate home for my entire real estate career and one of the things I’m most proud of is the incredible diversity across our 250+ agents in the DMV. Our leadership has done an excellent job of encouraging productive conversations about current events and taken strong public stands supporting BLM. I’d like to share this <5 minute video featuring stories from some of my colleagues as it relates to race in real estate.

COVID-19 Market Impact Update

Question: What impact is Coronavirus having on the real estate market?

Answer: COVID-19 has had a similar impact on new listings in Arlington as it has across Northern VA and the DC Metro with each market dealing with a ~30-35% year-over-year drop in April and May. However, demand in Arlington has tapered off from 2019 highs, while demand in Northern VA and the DC Metro is steadily increasing, despite everything we’ve gone through with Coronavirus.

The tapering of Arlington demand, which is still very strong relative to historical numbers, is bringing the Arlington market more in-line with supply/demand readings of the Northern VA and DC Metro markets. The below chart shows Months of Supply (a good supply/demand ratio) for each market. Months of Supply calculates how long it would take for the existing housing inventory to sell out, if no additional inventory was supplied.

Prices Up Regionally

Year-over-year prices for May sales and year-to-date sales are up significantly across the region. Across all of the counties/regions listed below, Arlington’s year-over-year growth is the lowest, which is almost certainly due to the significant appreciation in Arlington last year, after the Amazon announcement.

Keep in mind that sales data lags actual market activity because it usually takes 30-45 days for a property to close, so May sales are more reflective of March and April activity than what we’re currently seeing. This is particularly interesting because March and April were the peak of Coronavirus concerns/lockdowns. Barring any major shifts in the DC-area economy, I expect year-over-year prices to show even more growth as we get further into the year and sales reflect an even stronger buyer market.

Arlington New Listings Down

We’re used to seeing new listing supply peak from March-June, after November-February lows, with April and May almost always exceeding March’s supply. Unfortunately for many home buyers, new inventory tumbled in April and continued dropping further in May.

The May 2020 drop in new inventory represents a 32.1% decline compared to May 2019, which is particularly concerning when you consider that new inventory in May 2019 was already down 21.3% from May 2018, giving us a 47% decline in new inventory from May 2018 to May 2020.

The decline in new inventory was distributed pretty evenly across property type (single-family vs condo) and price point.

Arlington Demand Down

Absorption is a good indicator of demand, providing the rate of homes going under contract relative to total supply. Demand, and therefore absorption rate, are usually highest from February/March through May/June and have been sky-high since spring 2019, with an absorption rate of 1.0 or more in eight months since March 2019.

While the absorption rate in April and May 2020 remained high relative to pre-Amazon years, there was a year-over-year decline of 37.6% and 25.5%, respectively, indicating a tapering of Arlington demand compared to last year. However, with so few listings coming to market, there’s still high levels of competition for desirable properties that are reasonably priced.

This doesn’t mean that the bottom is dropping out in Arlington. Part of the difference in year-over-year data is due to how sharply Arlington demand rose in 2019 (post-Amazon announcement), but we’re also seeing a lot of buyers being priced out of Arlington and pushing their searches further into Northern VA.

Northern VA New Listings Down, Demand Up

Northern VA has experienced a similar drop in new listings (33.8% and 33.4% YoY decline in April and May, respectively), but is actually seeing an increase in year-over-year demand with a 32.2% increase in absorption rate in May 2020 compared to May 2019 and absorption rates exceeding 1.0 in three of the last four months.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

How to Write a Strong Offer

Question: The last time I bought a house, the market was much more favorable for buyers. I’ve heard so much about competing offers and the need to submit a strong offer, but what exactly does that mean?

Answer: Other than price, there are about a dozen terms included in your offer that will determine its strength — the value/appeal it has to the seller. Of course, every home owner wants to get the most money possible, but they also care about when the sale is executed, the likelihood of getting to settlement, renegotiation periods, risk and more.

Sometimes a seller takes a lower offer price in exchange for better supporting terms. Understanding what type of offer is appropriate/necessary for a property and how certain terms change your (buyer or seller) risk exposure on the transaction is critical.

Let’s take a look at some of the terms included in most contracts that have the biggest impact on the actual or perceived strength of an offer.

Price/Escalation Addendum

This is an obvious one. Higher price = stronger offer. Escalation Addendums are common when there are multiple offers, but how and when to use them is a nuanced, yet critical, decision.

The Escalation Addendum allows you to beat any competing offer by a specified amount, up to the highest amount (ceiling) you’re willing to pay for a property. Used correctly, it prevents you from leaving money on the table, while not paying too far above what the rest of the market is willing to offer.

Contingencies

The three most common contingencies are for the home inspection, appraisal, and loan. Each provide the buyer with a set of protections that allow them to renegotiate and/or terminate the contract, without losing the deposit. Removing a contingency or shortening the contingency timeline increases the strength of an offer.

  • Home Inspection:  It used to be standard for Arlington buyers to include a negotiation period in the home inspection contingency, allowing them to negotiate for repairs or credits based on the results of the inspection or terminate the contract. Now it is much more common for buyers to forego the negotiation period and simply retain the right to void (aka a pass/fail inspection), which is much more attractive for a seller. Even more attractive is when buyers perform a pre-inspection on the property (inspect before submitting an offer) and remove the home inspection contingency altogether.
  • Appraisal: If you’re using a mortgage to purchase a home, your lender will almost always require a property appraisal. The appraisal contingency allows you to renegotiate or terminate the contract in the event the home appraises for less than the purchase price. It is common for buyers to remove the appraisal contingency or agree to cover up to a certain amount on a low appraisal to increase the strength of an offer.
  • Financing: The financing contingency allows you to terminate the contract without losing your deposit if your loan isn’t approved. Many buyers who have undergone a thorough pre-approval process have enough confidence in their ability to secure the mortgage that they remove this protection, thus conveying a strong financial position to the homeowner.

Speed of Sale

Most sellers want to close (executed sale) as quickly as possible so cash-buyers have the biggest advantage here because they can usually close in a week or less. For the more than 80% of Arlington home buyers relying on a mortgage, many choose to work with smaller, local lender who can sometimes close in as little as 2-3 weeks. Offering a quick-close to a seller can give your offer a significant boost.

Financing

If you’re relying on a mortgage, sellers are usually more drawn to higher down payments. That’s not to say that a 3-5% down  payment (or 0% on a VA loan) can’t win in a competitive scenario, but you are at a disadvantage and will often get passed over when all other terms/pricing are relatively equal.

A thorough pre-approval process by a quality/reputable lender can provide the seller with confidence that if they accept your offer, there is very little risk of the deal falling apart due to financial issues. Sometimes sellers take less money work with a buyer they have more confidence in.

Earnest Money Deposit (EMD)

This is money held in escrow (usually by the Title Company) as security for the seller that you’ll perform under the obligations of the contract. It gets applied against what you owe at closing for down payment + closing costs, but is at-risk if you default on the contract (terminate outside the legal means/contingencies).

Traditionally, a reasonable deposit ranged from 1-3% of the purchase price, but some buyers are electing to make substantially larger deposits in an effort to establish financial strength. Instances of buyers offering deposits of 10% or more are becoming more common.

Rent-Back

Oftentimes if the homeowner is still living in the house during the sale, their preference is to close as quickly as possible and then have some time to move out after the sale is complete – this is called a rent-back. It used to be common for the seller to cover the buyer’s daily carrying cost (mortgage + taxes + insurance + HOA fee) for the length of the rent-back, but in this hyper-competitive market, a strong offer often includes a free rent-back for the seller.

The use and structure of each of these terms is dictated by many factors including demand/competition, days on market, seller-preferences, and buyer priorities/risk tolerance. As a buyer, being prepared with the right offer strategy and understanding the risk-benefit tradeoffs for each term can be the difference between landing your dream home or going back to the drawing board.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

All-Cash Home Purchases

Question: I just lost a competitive offer to an all-cash buyer. How common are cash buyers in Arlington? How much of a disadvantage am I at?

Answer: I have personally noticed an increase in cash buyers and expected to find a significant increase in the number of cash deals over the last 12-18 months, so I was a little surprised when I ran the numbers and learned that the percentage of homes purchased by all-cash buyers has only increased a few percent in the last couple of years. Since 2019, 17.5% of homes purchased in Arlington have been by all-cash buyers, compared to 14.3% in 2017.

Increased Cash Deals Attributed to Condo Sales

The number of cash purchases in Arlington jumped in 2018 and 2019, likely due to more cash investors getting involved after the Amazon HQ2 announcement in November 2018. This increase is attributed completely to condos (likely investors). The number of buyers paying cash for single-family or townhouse purchases has remained about the same since 2015.

The rate of all-cash purchases seems to be spread pretty evenly across all price-points and housing types. I assumed that the lower priced condos would have a much higher rate of all-cash deals, but it turns out that since 2019 only 20.5% of sub-$400k condo purchases were all-cash, which isn’t much higher than the overall Arlington market.

The chart below shows the percentage of homes sold in Arlington that were bought by all-cash buyers since 2015, also broken out by condo and single-family/townhouse purchases.

Cash vs Mortgage – What’s the Difference?

The idea of getting a cash offer sounds exciting, but what exactly does it mean? After all, a dollar from a lender is worth the same as a dollar from a savings account.

  • Contingencies: Cash buyers don’t need the contractual protection of a financing or appraisal contingency because they don’t need a lender to approve/review anything. This is appealing for sellers because it decreases the possibility of something going wrong that disrupts the sale.
  • Speed: Cash deals can close faster, often in one week or less, than financed deals which usually take at least 3-4 weeks due to the time it takes to process the loan.
  • Security: Cash deals are considered more secure because the purchase funds are already available
  • Cost: Cash deals have lower buyer closing costs because there are no lender fees or lender’s title insurance. Lenders also require a substantial about (usually 1-1.5% of purchase price) of money be pre-paid into an escrow account for future property tax payments and homeowner’s insurance.

Given how competitive the current housing market is, many buyers using a mortgage take steps to make their offers as cash-like as possible by removing the appraisal and financing contingencies and/or working with lenders who can close quickly. For buyers that have taken these steps, there’s very little difference to sellers between their offer and a cash offer.

If you are a seller considering a cash offer, make sure you verify the existence of the cash funds the same way you would verify a buyer’s mortgage qualification with a pre-approval letter. The most common method of verification is to request bank statements, but a letter from the buyer’s bank should also suffice.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Why Can’t I Find A House!?

Question: I’m prepared to make a strong offer in Arlington’s hyper-competitive market, but I can’t even find a house to make an offer on! Why is every home on the market either old and too small or new and too big??

Answer: While debates about Missing Middle and tear-downs continue, I thought it would be helpful to look at why Arlington is such a difficult place for most families to find good housing options. Most of Arlington’s single-family housing problems stem from when the majority of homes were built – before 1960 and within the last decade. Only 17.8 % of single-family homes sold since 2016 were built between 1960 and 2009!

Too Old, Too New

According to Arlington’s 2019 Profile, there were 28,500 single family detached homes in the County and according to public records, ~80% of those homes were built prior to 1960 or since 2010. Why is that a problem?

Many homes built prior to 1960 are functionally obsolete for most families (“the reduction of an object’s usefulness or desirability because of an outdated design feature that cannot be easily changed”) and homes built since 2010 have an average price of nearly $1.8M over the last 18 months.

Most homes built in Arlington in the 1940s and 1950s (with the original footprint) are plagued by 2-3 small bedrooms with small reach-in closets sharing one small bathroom, small enclosed kitchens, and small basements with low ceilings. They also lack the openness desired by most families in today’s market. Unfortunately, there’s very little one can do to bring these older homes up to today’s standards without extensive/expensive remodeling and/or expansion.

The economics of building a new home in the last decade doesn’t support the construction of a more modest homes (3,000-4,500sqft) so most new homes are built with 5,000-6,000+ square feet and are priced well above most budgets.

Just Right

It wasn’t until the 1980s and 1990s that Arlington homes were consistently built with designs more suited to today’s buyer including things like attached garages, master suites, and combination kitchen/dining spaces. While these 1980s-1990s designs may not be perfect, it makes for more reasonable compromises at prices many more Arlington families can afford.

Unfortunately, over the last four years, there have been fewer single-family homes for sale that were built during the 1980s and 1990s (4.3% combined) than any other decade until the 1910s.

Housing Changes Over Time

I put together some charts to highlight how home sizes have changed through each decade as well as how the average cost of a home changes by the decade it was built. These charts are based on Arlington single-family detached sales since 2016.

Note: Older homes that have been remodeled/expanded and sold are included in this data so the average size, bedroom, and bathroom count for older homes is higher than what you would expect from the original designs. Most pre-1960 homes were built with three bedrooms, one bathroom, and under 2,000sqft.

Note: Total finished square footage includes any finished basement space.

Here’s the data table for each of the charts:

Decade Built# SoldAvg PriceAvg BRsAvg Full BAsAvg Finished Sqft
<1930355$945,3453.62.42,302
1930s562$899,8673.52.42,315
1940s987$827,1973.52.32,121
1950s961$870,4533.72.52,413
1960s232$915,8184.22.92,760
1970s104$944,5764.02.82,919
1980s86$1,006,0184.23.03,193
1990s96$1,184,4094.63.23,641
2000s229$1,430,9054.94.04,697
2010s584$1,638,6965.24.65,004
Total4,196$1,022,3724.02.92,965
Using This Information

For those of you currently searching for a home or planning to start your home search, hopefully this information can be used to help you understand how likely/unlikely it will be to find the type of home you’re looking for and be more prepared to act decisively when the right home hits the market.

For those of you who own a home that falls within the middle-ground many buyers are seeking, you should have an even more favorable position within an already favorable market for sellers.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Guess How Many Agents Transacted in Arlington

Question: How many real estate agents conducted business in Arlington last year?

Answer: There were 2,782 real estate transactions in Arlington that were recorded in the MLS in 2019, totaling $1.96B in sales volume. So how many different real estate agents do you think were involved in those transactions?

…2,217!!

Now keep in mind that there’s usually two agents on each side of a deal, but that’s still a ton of agents involved within a relatively small (26 square mile) community. Below are some interesting takeaways:

  • 59.4% (1,316) of agents did one transaction in Arlington and just .6% (14) agents handled 20 or more transactions
  • 1,496 different agents represented Arlington buyers with 1.1% (17) of them representing 10 or more buyers
  • 1,258 different agents represented Arlington homeowners on the sale of their home with 2.1% (26) representing 10 or more homeowners
  • Of agents who conducted two or more transactions in Arlington, the average agent conducted 4.5 transactions in Arlington
  • Keri Shull and her team once again lead Arlington in total transactions and volume by a wide margin, representing 119 buyers and 76 homeowners/builders, for a total of just over $133M in total volume
  • Other than Keri Shull’s team, no other agent/team represented more than 1% of the buyer or seller market in Arlington

Most studies suggest that consumers are less concerned with measures like sales volume and more focused on the strength of communication and trustworthiness of the agent they’re working with, but market expertise and experience are still important factors for most people.

While some may see the low barrier to entry to real estate licensing and high volume of agents as a negative, it also means that you have a lot of choices as a consumer and, with some effort, can make sure that you’re working with somebody who provides the type and style of service you’re looking for.

Question: Can you provide some clarity on how mortgage forbearance works and whether that will negatively affect my credit score?

Answer: I’ve received quite a few emails from folks considering mortgage forbearance or asking for clarification on (usually) incorrect information provided to them from friends or family about the process. We don’t have all of the answers yet, but enough information is available to help people make more educated decisions about forbearance.

To explain forbearance and some of the unintended consequences, I asked one of the top mortgage lenders in the DC Metro, Jake Ryon of First Home Mortgage, to join as a guest columnist. If you’d like to talk with Jake about a loan, refinance, or any other mortgage related question you can contact him at JRyon@firsthome.com.

Take it away Jake…

What is Mortgage Forbearance?

Congress passed the CARES Act, allowing those facing financial hardship due to COVID-19 to request a mortgage forbearance (pause in mortgage payments) for 180 days, with the option to extend for an additional 180 days.

The bill does not require you to provide proof that you’re suffering a hardship, but the CFPB makes it clear that if you can pay your mortgage, you should. However, not everyone is following that guidance and some borrowers who are able to pay are choosing not to and may suffer unintended consequences.

Mortgage forbearance is a temporary pause in payment; it is NOT forgiveness. All missed payments by the borrower must be paid back.

Repayment

Unfortunately, the repayment terms for a forbearance are vague. Statements from Fannie and Freddie indicate that you do not have to repay the missed payments all at once, but that it is for the borrower to work out with the servicer. If the payments are not paid back in a lump sum or over a designated period, but instead added to the end of the loan, the borrower is agreeing to a loan modification.

During a forbearance the servicer (the company you pay) is still advancing the monthly mortgage payments to the end investor. This has led to major issues for lenders, and as a response, tightened credit standards and made it more difficult to obtain a mortgage.

Unintended Consequences

While taking a forbearance is not supposed to negatively affect your credit, there are some unintended consequences I’d like to explain.

*Please note this is based on the most up to date information I could find and is subject to change as this is a fluid situation. Please reach out to your loan servicer directly for your options. *

Refinancing: This may vary by lender, but as I understand it, to be eligible to refinance, borrowers must be out of forbearance and current on their mortgage. This is a big concern if rates continue to fall throughout the year.

Repayment Terms: As mentioned earlier, there are options to repay the missed payments via a lump sum, over a repayment period, or modifying the term of the loan. Keep in mind the servicer must agree to the repayment plan.

I’m hearing that modifications are only being offered if there is documentation to show you’ve been adversely affected by COVID-19. This is going to be problematic for borrowers who didn’t lose their job and assumed their skipped payments would be tacked onto the end of their mortgage or forgiven.

Buying Your Next Home: Since this is so new, we haven’t seen any credit reports reflecting modifications as a result of COVID-19. It’s unclear how lenders and investors will treat these modifications when evaluating new loans.

For example, most investors want to see borrowers pay their mortgage on time for a minimum of 12 months after their modification begins. If someone takes the full 12 months of forbearance, they could be looking at a minimum waiting period of 2 years before obtaining a new loan.

Residual Effects to Your Credit: While the CARES Act says mortgage lenders won’t report you as delinquent during a forbearance, they can’t control how other lenders will view it. For example, if you’re a credit card company and you see a borrower is in forbearance, are you inclined to increase their credit limit or issue a new card? If your credit card debt is increasing and your available line of credit is staying the same or decreasing, it will most likely lower your score.

Weekly Arlington Market Snapshot

Thank you very much for your insights Jake!

Here’s a quick look at how the Arlington market performed over the past week, compared to the prior week. New inventory and the inventory pipeline dropped down to some of the lowest one-week levels we’ve seen this spring, while contract activity remained relatively strong.

Past Seven Days (Arlington) 
Seven Days Prior (Arlington)

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies in this market, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

April Real Estate Market Review

Question: How did the April real estate market compare to what you would have expected if we weren’t going through the COVID-19 pandemic?

Answer:

Expectations vs Reality

The 2018 Amazon HQ2 announcement sent demand up and supply down, creating a frenetic real estate market across Arlington and Northern VA in 2019 (2019 Review One and Two). The party continued into 2020, with rapid price growth and intense competition amongst buyers, setting the stage for the market to establish new highs. It also seemed that the volume of new listings would finally go up, after YoY increases in December and January, the first YoY gains since October 2018.

All of those expectations were put on hold when the Coronavirus outbreak shut down the economy two months ago. For the first 4-5 weeks, the market froze up, with buyers and sellers unsure if we were on the verge of a market collapse and how to safely navigate critical real estate activities. Over the last few weeks, demand seems to be coming back and there are signs that sellers are more confident in listing their homes, which should lead to more supply.

April 2020 Market Report

April was our first full month living with Stay-At-Home orders, so let’s take a look at how last month compared to April 2018/2019 and February 2020 (last full month of normalcy).

Extremely Low Supply

Low supply was part of every Arlington real estate conversation in 2018. Then Amazon came and supply got so bad that the County Board launched Housing Arlington, but 2019 felt like the trough. Then COVID-19 hit and April 2020 produced 18% fewer homes for sale than April 2019.

The condo market has been hit the hardest by low supply with an unfathomable 55% decline in condo listings in April 2020 compared to April 2018.

For additional context, new listings in April are usually 25-40% higher than in February, but this year they were only 10% higher and actually lower in the condo market.

Sharp Decline in Demand

Given the on-going competition and mostly stable housing prices, it may come as a surprise to those actively searching for a home that demand has dropped off significantly.

The rate of properties going under contract compared to the new supply dropped to pre-Amazon levels and the number of homes selling within one week of being on market dropped significantly. Condo demand suffered the most which I think is due to a combination of health concern about being in common areas and because it’s easy to delay a condo purchase with an extra 6-12 months of renting a comparable apartment.

While many homes are still getting great offers, sometimes multiples, I do see more homes sitting on the market that probably wouldn’t have in a non-COVID market. Homes with large buyer pools had so much demand before the virus that they can afford to lose a chunk of the buyer market and still generate strong interest. Homes with a more niche buyer market have had their smaller buyer pool evaporate in many cases and should prepare for a longer sales timeline.

Prices Seem Stable

The Coronavirus’ impact on pricing is still to be determined because it’ll take a while to build up enough data points to draw a reliable conclusion. Based on my experiences and those of my colleagues, it seems that there has been little or no impact on prices for most properties (with the exception of niche home, mentioned above), which can be attributed to relatively parallel declines in supply and demand.

Looking Forward

As society adjusts to new norms and the science community continues to bring us promising news on treatments and a vaccine, I think that we’re likely to see more confident buyers and sellers over the next couple of months, which will translate into higher demand and more supply. The impact on competition and prices will depend on which moves faster, but I expect demand growth to outpace supply, at least in the next 4-6 weeks.

The big unknown is if/when there will be another seismic jolt to our health and job security that will send sellers and buyers out of the market. It seems this fall is the most likely window for a second shockwave, but this summer is shaping up to be a strong real estate market locally.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies in this market, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at Eli@EliResidential.com.

Past Seven Days (Arlington) 
Seven Days Prior (Arlington)