Question: How has the Arlington single-family housing market performed in the first half of 2025?
Answer: Despite significant headwinds from DOGE cuts to Federal spending and workforce and a sluggish national housing market, prices of Arlington’s detached single-family homes continued their upward climb in the first half of 2025, compared to the first half of 2024, albeit at a slower pace and with much less competition.
Prices Up, Competition Down in the First Half
Let’s look at the performance of Arlington’s detached single-family home (SFH) market in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of the previous four years (new construction sales not included in the data set):
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The average and median price of a SFH increased by 3.2% and 4% year-over-year, respectively
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Over the past five years, the average and median price of a SFH in the first half of the year increased by 15.5% and 17.9%, respectively
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The average SFH sold for more than $1,435,000, including new construction, and over $1,380,000 without new construction sales
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The median home price is $1.3M, including new construction, and $1,275,000 without new construction sales
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Demand and competition in the first half of 2025 fell to its lowest levels since the first half of 2020 (COVID spring):
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Only 54% of homes selling within the first ten days on market and just 55% of homes selling for at or above the asking prices, dropping from an average of 65% and 69% the previous four years
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the average home sold for 0.3% below the original asking price, the first time the average home sold for below the original asking price in the first half of the year since 2020
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Homes that went under contract within the first ten days sold for an average of 2.5% over the asking price, down from 3.1% last year
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Just 25% of homes sold for less than $1M
Looking Forward
The rosy picture painted by the strong numbers detailed above hide a less optimistic truth. The dataset above accounts only for the homes that have sold, but inventory is building with homes struggling to sell and many are reducing their asking price. While the average Arlington detached home price increased 3.2% year-over-year, the average Arlington detached home listed for sale in Q2 was listed for 13% less than in 2024.
As these sellers run out of patience or experience financial pressure to sell, they may be forced to accept prices they previously would not have consider and I wouldn’t be surprised if the second half of 2025 tells a different story of home values than the first half.
With the inventory of detached homes in Arlington up 54.5% year-over-year in June and the second half of the year traditionally a better time for buyers than the first half, expect to see buyers with more negotiating leverage than they’ve had in years, through the end of 2025.
How the Data is Organized
For my mid-year reviews, I like to compare the first half of the year to the first half of prior years, rather than comparing the first half of the current year to the full year in prior years. We tend to see a stronger market (higher demand, more competition) in the first half of the year than the second half, so this approach gives us a better apples-to-apples comparison.
The data is organized by homes that went under contract in the first half of the year because it’s more reflective of actual buying activity during that period; as opposed to looking at homes that closed in the first half of the year, but may have gone under contract many months prior during different market conditions. I also use “net sold” price, which factors in any seller credits to a buyer, instead of just the standard sold price.
This year I removed new construction sales from the data (I comment on it separately) because it was incorrectly skewing the outcomes of the data.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
Upcoming (pre-market) ERG Listings, Details and Additional Listings Available by Request
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Falls Church City – 4BR/4.5BA/3,000+ sqft – End-unit townhouse (1995) – Rees Pl Falls Church VA 22046
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Highland Park/Overlee Knolls – 6BR/5.5BA/5,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2025) – 22nd Rd N Arlington VA 22205
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Arlington Ridge/Aurora Hills – 3BR/2.5BA/2,450sqft – Detached Single Family (1961) – S Grove St Arlington VA 22202
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Yorktown – 6BR/6.5BA/6,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – N Greencastle St Arlington VA 22207
