Question: How common is it for a home sale to fall through once it’s under contract?
Answer: According to a recent study, 70% of sellers fear that buyers will back out of the deal before it closes. How often do real estate transactions actually fall apart?
Arlington, Northern VA Buyers Are Committed
Since 2019, less than 10% of real estate contracts fell through in Arlington, compared to 26.3% in Prince George’s County.
Just 11.4% of Northern VA real estate contracts didn’t make it to closing, as opposed to 13.8% in Montgomery County MD and 15.2% in Washington DC.
Spring Buyers Are More Committed
Homes that go under contract during the spring market are more likely to close than those that sell later in the year.
In Northern VA, just 9.6% of homes that go under contract in April fall through, but December contracts fall through 12.8% of the time; 12% more than average.
This pattern of fall-through rates follows a similar pattern of best and worst times to go to market for sellers. February through May often produce the best results for sellers in speed and price metrics, it also gives sellers the best chance at getting to the closing table.
Seasonal fall-through rates across the entire DMV market follow a similar trend as Northern VA, but the average fall-through rate increases 4-5% when you include DC and Maryland suburbs.
Buyer Commitment Shifts with Market Conditions
The percentage of contracts that fall through follows regional/national market conditions – more contracts get to settlement when the market is hot, and more contracts fall through when conditions weaken:
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From 2020 to 2021 (COVID shutdown to surging demand) the fall-through rate dropped by about 20% across DC, MD Suburbs, and Northern VA
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In 2022, when interest rates surged mid-way through the year, the fall-through rate increased by about 7% in Northern VA and the MD Suburbs, and 21% in DC
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In 2025, when DOGE threatened the entire DMV economy, fall-through rates increase by about 13% in Northern VA and the MD Suburbs. Oddly enough, the fall-through rate in DC fell by 8% in 2025.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
We have access to the most pre and off-market listings across the DMV of any brokerage and are happy to share what’s available with anybody who asks.
Below are some of our team’s pre/off-market listings, details and additional listings available by request:
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Columbia Pike – 1BR/1BA/600 – Condo (2019) – 989 S Buchanan St Arlington VA 22204
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Virginia Square – 4B/2BA/2,000sqft – Duplex (1939) – N Lincoln St Arlington VA 22201
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Westover – 4BR/2BA/2,000sqft – Detached Single Family (2000) – 23rd St N Arlington VA 22205
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Green Valley – 5BR/4.5BA/3,000sqft – Detached Single Family (2020) – 24th St S Arlington VA 22206
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Ballston – 4BR/3.5BA/2,400sqft – Townhouse (2008) – N George Mason Dr Arlington VA 22203
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Williamsburg – 6BR/5.5BA/5,500 sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – 27th St N Arlington VA 22207
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Yorktown – 6BR/6.5BA/6,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – N Greencastle St Arlington VA 22207
