Question: It seems like listings lingered on the market longer than usual this summer. Is that reflected in the market data?
Answer: The summer real estate market is usually slower than spring, but since late June, this summer has felt unusually slow compared with past summer markets. I analyzed Arlington homes listed for sale in July and August, going back to 2016, and found that we did indeed experience a historically slow summer market.
5-Bullet Cliff Notes
- Summer 2026 was slowest summer market since 2016
- Showing activity is down significantly
- Listing supply (homes for sale) is up significantly
- It is still a seller’s market, just more balanced
- Too early to accurately observe impact on prices
Slowest Summer Since 2016
Fewer homes listed in July and August went under contract within the first ten days on market (my preferred measure of market pace) than any summer since 2016.
The condo market experienced the brunt of that slowness, with the percentage of condos under contract within ten days falling 17.9 points below the trailing ten-year average. Arlington’s detached/townhouse/duplex market, one of the most robust sub-markets in the country, was not spared either; falling 6.7 points below the trailing ten-year average.
Lingering Inventory
The clearest sign of a summer slowdown is the amount of inventory that remained unresolved at the end of August. 53% of the listings entered in July and August were still active, compared with about 31% in 2025 and 27% from 2023-2025.
Even among July listings, which had at least a full month to attract a buyer, 36% remained active: more than twice the recent three-year rate. As of Aug 30, ~25% of all active summer listings had accumulated at least 30 days on market, and 9% accumulated at least 60 days.
Showings Down, Active Inventory Up
Showing data shows that we have fewer buyers in the market, not simply more indecisive/deliberate buyers. In the week ending August 23, showings in Arlington were down 7.9% from the prior week and 26.4% from the same week last year.
There are also a lot more homes for buyers to choose from, with active listings (homes listed for sale) up 2% from the week prior and 21.5% from the same week last year. Buyers will take longer to make decisions when they have more choices.
The Arlington trends are consistent with other Northern VA/DC Metro markets as well. In the DC Metro, weekly showings dropped to five-year lows in late June and remained there during most weeks of the summer. At the same time, the week ending August 23 delivered the most new listings to the market of any year since 2021, for the same week.
Total active listings in the DC Metro have been above the same week in the prior year since the second week of January 2025.
Important Perspective: Still a Seller’s Market, More Balanced
We are still in a seller’s market in Arlington/Northern VA/DC Metro -- except for a few sub-markets like DC condos -- with 2-3 months of supply for most local sub-markets, despite all the data reported above. A true buyer’s market exists at six or more months of supply.
That said, we are seeing a slow shift towards a more balanced market; which I would consider a healthier market. In a healthy market, buyers should have choice, time to think, and basic contingency protections for things like inspections and financing – things that haven’t existed for most buyers over the last 6-7 years.
What About Prices?
Longer days on market, fewer showings, and more supply are important data points but what you really care about is how it affects prices.
A few weeks ago, we established that prices increased modestly in Arlington during the first half of 2026 for detached homes and condos, but this did not include summer listings (the data reported above). It’s still too early to accurately report on pricing for summer listings because just 24% have sold and more than half are still for sale. The 24% that have sold are also the “best of the bunch” so reporting on pricing now will incorrectly suggest stronger pricing metrics.
It’s likely that we find a mixed bag of results for sale prices on summer/Q3 listings, with some performing exceptionally well, some with significant downward price pressure, and most somewhere in between. However, it’s likely that the overall summer market shows downward pressure on prices for July/August listings based on the leading indicators reported above.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
We have access to the most pre and off-market listings across the DMV of any brokerage and are happy to share what’s available with anyone who asks.
Below are some of our team’s pre/off-market listings, details and additional listings available by request:
- Ballston - 4BR/3.5BA/2,400sqft – Townhouse (2008) – N George Mason Dr Arlington VA 22203
- Lee Heights - 5BR/3.5BA/3,000 sqft – Detached (1953) – N Taylor St Arlington VA 22207
- Williamsburg Village - 5BR/4BA/3,500 sqft – Detached (1954) – 37th St N Arlington VA 22207
- Annandale VA - 4BR/3.5BA/3,000 sqft – Detached (1951) – Valleycrest Blvd Annandale VA 22003
- Capitol Hill (Washington DC) - 4BR/3.5BA/2,000 sqft – Rowhouse (1914) – South Carolina Ave SE Washington DC 20003
- Mclean VA - 5BR/4.5BA/3,700 sqft – Detached Single Family (2023) – Randolph Rd Mclean VA 22101
