Question: How has the Arlington condo market performed in the first half of 2026?
Answer: After a down year for condo prices in 2025, values rebounded close to 2024 levels despite properties staying on market longer and fewer condos selling for at or above their original asking price.
Market Values Higher, Despite Difficulty Selling
- The average and median $/SF increased 3.3% and 5%, respectively
- The average and median price increased 6.6% and 8.3%, respectively
- Over the past five years, the average and median price per square foot increased by just 5%
- Sellers felt more pressure during the sale, with the average condo taking an extra ten days to sell (42 days on market) and buyers negotiating an average of 2.1% off the original asking price, compared to 1.8% in 2025
- Just 40% of condos sold for at or above the asking price, compared to 39% last year and ~ 50% from 2022-2024.
One-Bedroom Values Flat/Stable, Two-Bedroom Values Higher but Volatile
- In 2026, the average $/SF of two-bedroom condos increased by 3.7%, compared to just 0.2% for one-bedroom condos
- In 2025, the average $/SF of two-bedroom condos decreased by 6.5%, compared to a decrease of 1.7% for one-bedroom condos
- The average $/SF of one-bedroom condos are still 1.6% below 2024 values and two-bedroom condos are 3.1% below 2024 values
Condo Fees Play a Significant Role in Condo Sales
The median monthly condo fee increased 3.6% to $638. On a fee-per-square-foot basis, the median rose 0.5% to about $0.70.
Among 2026 sales with fees below $0.50/SF, the median market time was 11 days, 51.4% sold at or above original ask, and the average sale was 98.6% of original ask. At $1.00+/SF, the median time on market more than doubled, only 35.6% sold at or above ask, and the average sale was 95.8% of original ask. Price reductions were also more common: 32.2% versus 22.9%.
Looking Forward
Given that price growth was attributable to two-bedroom condos, not the entire condo market, and it occurred with key demand metrics well below long-term averages, I wouldn’t be surprised to see values recede in the second half of 2026.
Additionally, condo inventory in Q2 of 2026 was 37% higher than in Q2 2025, while absorption rates were down. More supply combined with less demand is another indicator of downward pressure on condo values in the second half of 2026.
How the Data is Organized
For my mid-year reviews, I like to compare the first half of the year to the first half of prior years, rather than comparing the first half of the current year to the full year in prior years. We tend to see a stronger market (higher demand, more competition) in the first half of the year than the second half, so this approach gives us a better apples-to-apples comparison.
The data is organized by homes that went under contract in the first half of the year because it’s more reflective of actual buying activity during that period; as opposed to looking at homes that closed in the first half of the year, but may have gone under contract many months prior during different market conditions.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
We have access to the most pre and off-market listings across the DMV of any brokerage and are happy to share what’s available with anyone who asks.
Below are some of our team’s pre/off-market listings, details and additional listings available by request:
- Ballston - 4BR/3.5BA/2,400sqft – Townhouse (2008) – N George Mason Dr Arlington VA 22203
- Lee Heights - 5BR/3.5BA/3,000 sqft – Detached (1953) – N Taylor St Arlington VA 22207
- Pentagon City - 3BR/3.5BA/2,500 sqft – Condo (1976) – 1101 S Arlington Ridge Rd Arlington VA 22202
- Bluemont/Bon Air - 4BR/3BA/1,800 sqft – Detached (1964) – 6th St N Arlington VA 22205
- Williamsburg Village - 5BR/4BA/3,500 sqft – Detached (1954) – 37th St N Arlington VA 22207
