The DC Housing Market Bent, Didn’t Break: Three Defining Takeaways of 2025

Question: As we wrap up 2025, what are some of the trends you saw in the Northern VA real estate market?

Answer: The Northern VA/DC Metro housing market bent, but did not break. Here are three defining trends and takeaways of 2025:

1. Supply levels increased faster in Northern VA/DC Metro than the overall Mid-Atlantic region, due to turmoil in DC area federal employment and spending

2. There was not a mass exodus from the Northern VA/DC Metro market, like some projected when DOGE came to town

3. Demand dropped slightly, but did not collapse at any point in the year

Here are the charts and data behind each statement…

Supply Levels Increase Faster in DC Area than Mid-Atlantic

By November 2025, housing supply levels are up 20% in the Mid-Atlantic region compared to 34% and 41.5% in the DC Metro and Northern VA regions, respectively. This rise in DC Area housing inventory levels relative to the larger region is attributed to the effects of DOGE/Trump cuts to federal employment and spending.

Key Stat: Active listings are up 33.7% year-over-year as of Dec 4 2025 in the DC Metro vs 19.7% in the Mid-Atlantic

There Was Not a Mass Exodus from DC Area Homes

When DOGE was announced in February 2025, there was an alarming number of (false) reports that it induced a mass exodus of homeowners from the Northern VA/DC Metro market. While new listings spiked in March (DOGE) and September/October (Government Shutdown), the ~20-25% and ~5-15% increases in new listings were a response to local turmoil, but far from a mass exodus.

Key Stat: New listings are up 6.8% year-over-year as of Dec 4 2025, in the DC Metro vs 4.4% in the Mid-Atlantic

Local Demand Dropped Slightly, Did Not Collapse

Nothing in the 2025 DC Metro data suggests demand has collapsed market wide (a DC condo owner trying to sell may feel differently), rather, here’s what we’re seeing from the demand side, year-to-date in the DC Metro:

• Showings: Down 2.9%

• Listings going under contract (new pending): Down 2.6%

• Total sales: Down 0.8%

• Median days on market: Up five days

Key Stat: Median sold price is up 3.7%, but median list price (unsold homes) is down 5.7%

Table: Washington DC Metro housing data through Dec 4 2025, via Bright MLS

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

We have access to the most pre and off-market listings across the DMV of any brokerage and are happy to share what’s available with anybody who asks.

Below are some of our team’s pre/off-market listings, details and additional listings available by request:

• Glebewood – 3BR/2.5BA/1,800 sqft – Duplex (1953) – 20th Pl N Arlington VA 22207

• Ballston – 1BR+den/1BA/900 sqft – Condo (2008) – 888 N Quincy St Arlington VA 22203

• Annandale – 4BR/3.2NA/2,500 sqft – Townhouse (2003) – Aspen Hill Ct Annandale VA 22003

• Highland Park/Overlee Knolls – 6BR/5.5BA/5,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2025) – 22nd Rd N Arlington VA 22205

• Falls Church – 4BR/3BA/1,800 sqft – Detached Single Family (1946) – Tyler Ave Falls Church VA 22042

• Falls Church City – 4BR/4.5BA/3,000+ sqft – End-unit townhouse (1995) – Rees Pl Falls Church VA 22046

• Arlington Heights – 5BR/5.5BA/5,000 sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – South Highland St Arlington VA 22204