Question: What were the overall trends of the DC Metro housing market last year and what is expected in 2026?
Answer: In the coming weeks, I’ll publish my deep dive into the 2025 Arlington housing market, but this week we’ll take a 20,000 foot view of the Great DC Metro market and some national trends/projections.
In this article, local data:
- Low Home Sale Volume, Again
- Modest Appreciation, Despite Challenges
- Monthly Listings Far Below Pre-Pandemic
- Early 2026 Market Indicators
In this article, national data:
- State-by-State Changes in Housing Inventory (2019 to 2025)
- Experts Predict Home Price Appreciation
- Experts Predict Mortgage Interest Rates
Three Year Home Sale Drought Continues
For a third year in a row, the number of homes sold in the DC Metro fell more than 20% below the ten-year historical average. This is due to a lack of homes being offered for sale, not a reflection of low demand.
Average Prices Increase, Despite Headwinds
Despite local economic and political headwinds, the average home in the DC Metro in 2025 sold for 4.3% more than in 2024. There has not been a year-over-year decrease in average sold price since 2009 (down 9.4%).
Monthly Listing Activity Far Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
For the past two years, monthly new listing supply has been 20-40% below pre-pandemic volumes (2019) caused by issues that vary from interest rate lock-in to lack of affordability for move-up and down size housing.
Early 2026 Indicators: More Buyers, More Sellers
Through the first three weeks of 2026 (an almost uselessly small sample size) showing activity is higher than the previous two years, but well short of 2022 and 2023.
What to watch: The bigger story is that weekly listing activity is higher than the start of any year since 2022, an indication that we may soon return to more normal monthly/annual new listing volume.
National Trends: Two Different Markets
While some markets (Texas, Arizona, Florida) have substantially more homes for sale than pre-pandemic and have turned into a Buyer’s Market, other markets (mostly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic) are still suffering from severe undersupply and 30-40%+ below pre-pandemic levels, and remain a Seller’s Market.
Local Data: Virginia and Maryland are had 27% and 24% fewer homes for sale in December 2025 compared to December 2019, but Washington DC’s inventory levels increased by 78% in that same period. DC’s significant inventory increase is attributed to a severe lack of demand for DC condos.
Modest Appreciation Predicted for 2026
Last year, six leading housing research organizations predicted homes price appreciate of 2-4% nationally, a composite prediction of 3%. Actual appreciation in 2025 was 1.7%.
This year, those six organizations predict national price appreciation of .1%-4.5%, with a composite prediction of 2.3%.
Mortgage Interest Rates Expected to Remain Flat
Last year, six leading housing research organizations predicted average mortgage interest rates on a 30yr fixed loan would be 6-6.4%, a composite prediction of 6.2%. The actual average 30yr fixed rate in 2025 was 6.6%.
This year, those six organizations predict the average 30yr fixed rate will be 6-6.4%, with a composite prediction of 6.2% (same range and composite as last year).
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
We have access to the most pre and off-market listings across the DMV of any brokerage and are happy to share what’s available with anybody who asks.
Below are some of our team’s pre/off-market listings, details and additional listings available by request:
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Rosslyn – 2BR+den/2.5BA/2,000sqft – Condo (2021) – 1781 N Pierce St Arlington VA 22209
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Arlington View – 3BR/2BA/1,400sqft – Townhouse (1986) – 10th St S Arlington VA 22204
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Rosslyn – 3BR/2.5BA/2,400sqft – Condo (1986) – 1530 Key Blvd Arlington VA 22209
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Ballston – 4BR/3.5BA+office/4,000 sqft – Four Townhouses (2026/2027) – 11th St N Arlington VA 22201
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Glebewood – 4BR/2.5BA/1,800 sqft – Duplex (1953) – 20th Pl N Arlington VA 22207
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Arlington Heights – 5BR/5.5BA/5,000 sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – South Highland St Arlington VA 22204
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Williamsburg – 6BR/5.5BA/5,500 sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – 27th St N Arlington VA 22207
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Yorktown – 6BR/6.5BA/6,000+ sqft – Detached Single Family (2026) – N Greencastle St Arlington VA 22207
