Arlington Condo Market Performance
- The condo market seems to have appreciated 7-8% in 2019, after experiencing barely any growth from 2013-2017 and modest growth in 2018
- South Arlington beat out North Arlington in every key category, which makes sense because it’s an easier price point for homeowners and investors who wanted some sort of real estate position in Arlington before Amazon’s hiring picks up
- The average condo buyer in South Arlington paid .8% over the seller’s asking price
- Condos in North Arlington sold twice as fast as they did from 2015-2017. In South Arlington they sold more than three times faster than 2015-2016.
Performance of Different Sub-Markets
I took a look at some of the sub-markets that make up large cross-sections of Arlington’s condo market to see how they performed compared to the overall market.- “Standard” R-B 1BRs appreciated 4% in 2019
- “Standard” R-B 2BRs appreciated 5% in 2019
For “older” 1BR and 2BR condos, I looked at those constructed in the 1940s-1960s. This category of condos had been slow to appreciate and as of 2018, a lot of owners were still trying to dig out from 2005-2007 prices.
- Older 1BRs appreciated 7.4% in 2019
- Older 2BRs appreciated 10.5% in 2019
Performance Within Different Price Ranges
Appreciation in Arlington’s condo market was pretty evenly distributed between the upper, middle, and lower price ranges as evidenced by the change in the average price of the lower 25%, middle 50%, and upper 25% of sales from 2018 to 2019.
- The average price of the middle 50% of Arlington is now well north of $400k
- Over the last two years, Arlington’s least expensive housing has appreciated the fastest, with the average price of the lower 25% increasing by more than 12% since 2017. You can likely attribute this to investor activity.
- If you’re curious about the max sold price in 2019 of $4,750,000, it was a top floor 4,400+sqft condo at Turnberry Tower. It was first offered for sale three years ago for $7M. If you remove this sale from the data, the upper 25% appreciated 7.4% in 2019.
Inventory Shortage
A lot of real estate conversation in 2019 revolved around inventory shortages. The number of condos offered for sale dropped nearly 21% in 2019 and the increased demand (higher absorption rate) pushed available inventory down by more than 57%. The chart below shows the YoY quarterly decrease in new condo listings and available condo inventory in Arlington.
Looking Ahead
I will be keeping a close eye on inventory levels as this year starts off. Last year a lot of homeowners decided to withhold homes from the market in anticipation of higher Amazon-related appreciation. Now that much of the market has experienced significant appreciation, it will be interesting to see if more homeowners decide that now is the right time to sell. I expect demand will be able to keep pace with an increase in new inventory, but more inventory should keep prices a bit more level this year.